Will there be a new top AI model this week? [ resolved 2026-07-27 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will be the top AI model this month | 2026-07-27 | 0.0% | $21K | $35K | C | KXTOPMODEL-2…AUT | ||
| What will be the top AI model this month | 2026-07-27 | 0.0% | $135 | $218 | C | KXTOPMODEL-2…LAU | ||
| What will be the top AI model this month | 2026-07-27 | 0.0% | $0 | $3 | C | KXTOPMODEL-2…AU7 | ||
| What will be the top AI model this month | 2026-07-27 | 0.0% | $50 | $250 | C | KXTOPMODEL-2…AUF |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Jul 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control) source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | What will be the top AI model this month? | kalshi | 2026-07-27 | 0% |
| NO | What will be the top AI model this month? | kalshi | 2026-07-27 | 0% |
| NO | What will be the top AI model this month? | kalshi | 2026-07-27 | 0% |
| NO | What will be the top AI model this month? | kalshi | 2026-07-27 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtopmodel-26jul27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtopmodel-26jul27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtopmodel-26jul27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4MMHQXTPM2",
"slug": "kxtopmodel-26jul27",
"question": "Will there be a new top AI model this week?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-models",
"technology-rankings",
"weekly-resolution",
"model-performance",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 35221,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)",
"url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}