Tornadoes in July [ resolves 2026-08-01 (9D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $580 | A | KXTORNADO-26JUL-25 | ||
| > 50 | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXTORNADO-26JUL-50 | ||
| > 75 | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | $873 | $7.3K | A | KXTORNADO-26JUL-75 | ||
| > 100 | 2026-08-01 | 98.0% | $2.3K | $12K | A | KXTORNADO-26…100 | ||
| > 125 | 2026-08-01 | 68.0% | $1.9K | $8.7K | A | KXTORNADO-26…125 | ||
| > 150 | 2026-08-01 | 28.0% | $349 | $2.1K | A | KXTORNADO-26…150 | ||
| > 175 | 2026-08-01 | 5.0% | $8 | $76 | A | KXTORNADO-26…175 | ||
| > 200 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | $5 | $18 | A | KXTORNADO-26…200 | ||
| > 225 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $6 | A | KXTORNADO-26…225 | ||
| > 250 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $12 | A | KXTORNADO-26…250 | ||
| > 275 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $20 | A | KXTORNADO-26…275 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Jul is above 25 , then the market resolves to Yes.
The number of tornadoes will be determined by the "Storm Reports Legend" shown in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary."
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration source of record venue-listed
- Storm Reports Legend from rules text · editorial
- Preliminary Report Summary from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtornado-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtornado-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtornado-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VNSTQGPB24",
"slug": "kxtornado-26jul",
"question": "Tornadoes in July",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"tornadoes",
"weather-forecasting",
"us-climate",
"2026",
"july"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31696,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"url": "https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Storm Reports Legend",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Preliminary Report Summary",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}