Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | MSNBC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement.
A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient.
If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "MSNBC" sources (17)
- MSNBC venue-listed
- country venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before May 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-08 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtradedealcuba-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtradedealcuba-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtradedealcuba-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KMHJ1FX1V6",
"slug": "kxtradedealcuba-27",
"question": "Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-administration",
"us-cuba-relations",
"trade-policy",
"announcement-based",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30979,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "MSNBC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "country",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}