Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans	2027-01-01	95.1%		$103	$21K		A	`KXTRANSGENDE…BAN`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Supreme Court	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If the Supreme Court, in West Virginia v. B.P.J. or Little v. Hecox, rules to uphold state laws restricting transgender athletes in sports, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision in West Virginia v. B.P.J. or Little v. Hecox holding that the Equal Protection Clause or Title IX does not prohibit states from designating sports teams based on biological sex, after Issuance and before January 1, 2027. The market resolves to No if the Supreme Court affirms that such restrictions are unconstitutional or unlawful. If the cases are dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision regarding the validity of such laws before January 1, 2027, the market also resolves to No.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtransgendersportsban/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtransgendersportsban.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtransgendersportsban")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GF255LWXC3",
  "slug": "kxtransgendersportsban",
  "question": "Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "supreme-court",
    "transgender-rights",
    "sports-policy",
    "legal-challenge",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 21444,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →