Truflation EV Commodity Index, August 4, 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-12 (8D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 1161.89 | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | $1.3K | $1.3K | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1171.89 | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | $1.3K | $1.3K | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1181.89 | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | $2.6K | $2.6K | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1191.89 | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | $1.2K | $1.2K | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1201.89 | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | $623 | $623 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1211.89 | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | $3.3K | $3.4K | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1221.89 | 2026-08-12 | 95.0% | $848 | $848 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1231.89 | 2026-08-12 | 77.0% | $445 | $445 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1241.89 | 2026-08-12 | 67.0% | $31 | $31 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1251.89 | 2026-08-12 | 31.0% | $24 | $24 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1261.89 | 2026-08-12 | 4.0% | $3 | $11 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1271.89 | 2026-08-12 | 2.0% | $2 | $9 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1281.89 | 2026-08-12 | 1.0% | $27 | $27 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1291.89 | 2026-08-12 | 1.0% | $24 | $24 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 | ||
| > 1301.89 | 2026-08-12 | 1.0% | $23 | $23 | C | KXTRUEV-26AU….89 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Truflation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 4, 2026 is above 1161.89, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Truflation" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Truflation source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtruev-26aug04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtruev-26aug04 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtruev-26aug04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FJ9H5KDRH5",
"slug": "kxtruev-26aug04",
"question": "Truflation EV Commodity Index, August 4, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"ev-commodities",
"price-index",
"truflation",
"economics-2026",
"commodities-market"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11882,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Truflation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Truflation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Truflation",
"url": "https://truflation.com/marketplace/ev-index",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}