Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (above threshold) [ resolves 2027-01-07 (156D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 43% | 2027-01-07 | 15.0% | $46 | $5.4K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-43 | ||
| ≥ 44% | 2027-01-07 | 8.6% | — | $2.0K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-44 | ||
| ≥ 45% | 2027-01-07 | 6.2% | — | $752 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-45 | ||
| ≥ 46% | 2027-01-07 | 8.8% | — | $577 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-46 | ||
| ≥ 47% | 2027-01-07 | 2.8% | — | $447 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-47 | ||
| ≥ 48% | 2027-01-07 | 6.9% | — | $226 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-48 | ||
| ≥ 49% | 2027-01-07 | 1.2% | — | $48 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-49 | ||
| ≥ 50% | 2027-01-07 | 5.9% | — | $1.2K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | <polling organization> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 43%, then the market resolves to Yes.
In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "<polling organization>" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Trump approval odds stay below 43 percent threshold Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 4% odds on Trump approval exceeding 43%, implying the market-implied level sits well below that threshold.
- Sinking approval headlines are consistent with the pricing, the market shows no meaningful probability of a recovery above 43%.
- The ladder shows near-zero probability across all strikes from 43% to 50%, a uniform bearish read on Trump's approval trajectory.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5 (Trump approval 2026) sits at 4%, cross-venue alignment confirms the low-approval consensus.
- Trump approval odds slip below 43 percent threshold Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices only 7% probability that Trump's approval rating clears 43%, with all higher strikes at 6% or below.
- A 5-point net approval improvement after the Israel-Iran ceasefire has not moved the market materially above the low-single-digit range for the 43% threshold.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Trump approval by December 31, 2026 sits at 12% for a 'below threshold' outcome, suggesting the market sees limited upside for approval through year-end.
- Resolution uses a named polling organization; the specific pollster and methodology will determine whether the ceasefire bounce is captured in the settlement read.
- Trump approval above 43% priced as unlikely Kalshi ladder
- The approval rating ladder prices only 8% on Trump clearing 43% approval, implying the market-consensus range sits well below that level.
- New polling showing Trump at historic lows aligns directly with the market's sub-43% implied range, with no divergence between news and pricing.
- The companion ladder (CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3) implies a market-consensus floor near 33-37%, consistent with polls showing broad erosion even among Republicans.
- Resolution uses an approval-rating aggregator; the distribution spread between 33% and 43% reflects genuine uncertainty about how low ratings can fall, not just where they are today.
- Trump approval above 43 percent stays near fully priced out Kalshi ladder
- The approval rating ladder puts only 8% odds on Trump's rating exceeding 43%, with probability collapsing to 6% at 44% and staying flat through 50%, implying the market sees his approval firmly below 43%.
- The record-high disapproval figures in the ABC/Ipsos poll are consistent with the ladder's near-zero pricing above 43%; the news and the market are aligned.
- A companion ladder on Trump's approval falling below 33% prices that outcome at only 10%, implying the market consensus clusters his approval in the 33-43% range.
- Resolution anchors to a named approval-rating polling aggregator; no single poll is sufficient, smoothing out any one-off outlier reading.
- Trump approval above 43 percent priced as long shot Kalshi ladder
- The ladder prices only 16% odds on Trump's approval rating reaching 43%, falling to 9% at 44% and 6% at 45%.
- The poll showing 75% of Americans dissatisfied with Trump's focus is consistent with a market that places him well below the 43% threshold.
- The distribution shows approval above 50% at just 6%, making any recovery to majority-approval territory a deep long shot by this market.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the midterms sits at 46%, suggesting approval drag is already reflected in broader electoral pricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
"slug": "kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31",
"question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (above threshold)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-approval",
"us-politics",
"polling-metrics",
"2027",
"sentiment-tracking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10687,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "" ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "VoteHub",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "VoteHub",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}