Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (above threshold) [ resolves 2027-01-07 (156D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 43% | 2027-01-07 | 15.0% | $46 | $5.4K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-43 | ||
| ≥ 44% | 2027-01-07 | 8.6% | — | $2.0K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-44 | ||
| ≥ 45% | 2027-01-07 | 6.2% | — | $752 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-45 | ||
| ≥ 46% | 2027-01-07 | 8.8% | — | $577 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-46 | ||
| ≥ 47% | 2027-01-07 | 2.8% | — | $447 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-47 | ||
| ≥ 48% | 2027-01-07 | 6.9% | — | $226 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-48 | ||
| ≥ 49% | 2027-01-07 | 1.2% | — | $48 | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-49 | ||
| ≥ 50% | 2027-01-07 | 5.9% | — | $1.2K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-50 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | <polling organization> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 43%, then the market resolves to Yes.
In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "<polling organization>" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Trump approval above 43 percent priced as a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices only 3% that Trump's approval rating exceeds 43% during the measured window, implying consensus well below that level.
- The ABC/WaPo/Ipsos poll showing two-thirds wrong-track sentiment is fully consistent with sub-43% approval pricing.
- Kalshi separately prices only 11% that Trump's approval falls below a lower threshold by December 31, 2026, suggesting markets see approval as low but not collapsing further.
- Ladder resolution depends on a named polling organization; the exact polling source and date window determine which strike settles.
- Trump approval above 43 percent stays a long shot heading into midterms Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies Trump approval rating below 43%: only 3% above 43%, 7% above 44%, with no strike above 50% exceeding single digits.
- Poll showing majority view Trump as self-enriching aligns with the ladder's heavy pricing below 43%; markets and news are consistent.
- The Polymarket contract on Trump approval in 2026 (CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5) sits at just 2%, reinforcing the cross-venue consensus for sustained low approval.
- A separate Kalshi binary (CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3) at 11% on a below-threshold December approval adds a year-end data point to the same bearish read.
- Trump approval above 43 percent stays a long shot Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder shows only 3% probability of Trump's approval rating exceeding 43%, with no strike above 50% reaching double digits.
- The record-low approval news is consistent with the ladder's distribution, which implies the market already embedded a sub-43% approval scenario.
- The companion Kalshi binary (CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3) puts 10% odds on approval ending below its stated threshold on December 31, 2026, suggesting modest recovery odds are priced in over the longer horizon.
- Resolution for CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3 cites a polling organization as source; the unnamed resolver is a settlement-edge risk if methodologies diverge across pollsters.
- Trump approval above 43 percent stays a long shot near year-end Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices Trump approval above 43% at only 3%, above 44% at 8%, implying a market-implied range well below 43%.
- The AP-NORC polling showing majority dissatisfaction on economy and foreign policy is fully consistent with sub-43% approval pricing.
- The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3) prices Trump approval below a threshold by December 31 at 12%, suggesting the market sees limited upside.
- The Polymarket contract on Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 (CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1) sits at 4%, so low approval is priced as persistent but not destabilizing.
- Trump approval rating priced below 43 percent by markets Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices only 3% odds Trump's approval rating exceeds 43%, implying the market consensus sits well below that threshold.
- The AP-NORC poll showing majority disapproval aligns with the ladder's sub-43% implied range, with the market not pricing any near-term approval recovery.
- A companion Kalshi contract on Trump's approval rating at December 31, 2026 sitting below a threshold is priced at 11%, adding a longer-dated consistent signal.
- Resolution tracks a named polling organization's approval figure; the current distribution prices a sustained low-approval environment through year-end.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
"slug": "kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31",
"question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (above threshold)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-approval",
"us-politics",
"polling-metrics",
"2027",
"sentiment-tracking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10687,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "" ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "VoteHub",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "VoteHub",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}