Will 2026 be a bad year for Trump? [ resolves 2027-12-31 (576D) ]
Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026 | 2027-12-31 | 15.0% | $19 | $24K | A | KXTRUMPBEARC…-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring **ALL** specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD
- "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL
- "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS
- "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT
For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Additional specifications:
- POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period
- CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027
- NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpbearcasecombo-27dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpbearcasecombo-27dec.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpbearcasecombo-27dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D0MJMVWG14",
"slug": "kxtrumpbearcasecombo-27dec",
"question": "Will 2026 be a bad year for Trump?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-2026",
"us-politics",
"political-narrative",
"bear-case",
"subjective-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23904,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}