CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,450 EVENTS / ~20,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Trump visit any countries in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 24 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
China 2027-01-01 99.9%
$183K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…CHI
France 2027-01-01 95.0%
$5.9K $36K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…FRA
Turkey 2027-01-01 94.6%
$475 $53K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…TUR
Germany 2027-01-01 42.0%
$426 $6.0K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…GER
Saudi Arabia 2027-01-01 38.0%
$656 $6.6K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…-SA
Japan 2027-01-01 33.0%
$11 $11K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…JAP
Israel 2027-01-01 30.0%
$436 $11K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…ISR
Italy 2027-01-01 30.0%
$38 $2.5K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…ITA
Canada 2027-01-01 29.0%
$1.6K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…CAN
India 2027-01-01 28.0%
$1 $3.0K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…IND
Pakistan 2027-01-01 25.0%
$3 $2.3K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…AKI
Poland 2027-01-01 24.0%
$671
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…POL
Qatar 2027-01-01 19.0%
$4 $917
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…QAT
Cuba 2027-01-01 14.0%
$5.7K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…CUB
Russia 2027-01-01 13.0%
$1.3K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…RUS
Venezuela 2027-01-01 13.0%
$3.3K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…VEN
Mexico 2027-01-01 13.0%
$73 $1.3K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…MEX
Ukraine 2027-01-01 11.0%
$1.2K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…UKR
Hungary 2027-01-01 9.9%
$1.3K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…HUN
Denmark (incl. Greenland) 2027-01-01 9.1%
$2 $755
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…DEN
North Korea 2027-01-01 8.5%
$2 $1.4K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…-NK
Vatican City 2027-01-01 8.2%
$289
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…VAT
Taiwan 2027-01-01 4.6%
$1.8K
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…TAI
Palestine (West Bank and Gaza Strip) 2027-01-01 1.9%
$124
C KXTRUMPCOUNT…PAL
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff The Guardian not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 24 markets · share this text
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Israel after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Guardian"
sources (17)
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027? kalshi 2027-01-01 100%
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpcountries-27jan01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpcountries-27jan01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpcountries-27jan01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L81T84MFK3",
  "slug": "kxtrumpcountries-27jan01",
  "question": "Will Trump visit any countries in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-travel",
    "international-diplomacy",
    "2027",
    "geopolitics",
    "presidential-movement"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 24,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 336398,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 72,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "The Guardian",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "The Guardian",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official representatives or offices of ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official social media accounts of  or their official representatives",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNBC",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official government sources of ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →