Will Trump endorse a candidate in the 2026 primaries? [ resolves 2026-09-15 (71D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 12 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19,	2026-09-15	99.0%	—	$47K	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…BAR`
Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6,	2026-09-15	51.0%	—	$3.9K	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…BLA`
Mike Lindell in Minnesota gubernatorial race before Aug 11,	2026-09-15	36.0%	$10	$232	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…LIN`
John Rose in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6,	2026-09-15	14.0%	—	$165	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…ROS`
Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles mayoral race before Jun 2,	2026-09-15	3.0%	—	$394	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…PRA`
John Fleming in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary before May 16,	2026-09-15	1.0%	—	$49	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…FLE`
Blake Miguez in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary before May 16,	2026-09-15	1.0%	—	$70	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…MIG`
Derek Dooley in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19,	2026-09-15	0.1%	—	$8	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…DOO`
Buddy Carter in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19,	2026-09-15	0.1%	—	$5	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…CAR`
Mike Collins in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19,	2026-09-15	0.1%	—	$8	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…COL`
Daniel Cameron in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19,	2026-09-15	0.1%	—	$10	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…CAM`
Nate Morris in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19,	2026-09-15	0.1%	—	$14	C	`KXTRUMPENDOR…MOR`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	official social media accounts controlled by <person>	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 12 markets · share this text

If Donald Trump publicly endorses Derek Dooley in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and specifically reference the race or be clearly in context of the race. The endorsement must come directly from the person or through their official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements without nominee endorsement, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "official social media accounts controlled by <person>"

sources (18)

official social media accounts controlled by <person> venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
official campaign announcements from <candidate> venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
Politico EU venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
official statements from organizations where <person> holds a leadership position venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse Derek Dooley in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`0%`
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse Buddy Carter in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`0%`
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse Mike Collins in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`0%`
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse Daniel Cameron in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`0%`
YES	Will Donald Trump endorse Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`99%`
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse Nate Morris in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`0%`
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse John Fleming in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary before May 16, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`1%`
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse Blake Miguez in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary before May 16, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`1%`
NO	Will Donald Trump endorse Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles mayoral race before Jun 2, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-09-15`	`3%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (9 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpendorse-26sep15/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpendorse-26sep15`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpendorse-26sep15")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LF76ZFFH05",
  "slug": "kxtrumpendorse-26sep15",
  "question": "Will Trump endorse a candidate in the 2026 primaries?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-endorsement",
    "2026-midterms",
    "republican-primary",
    "us-politics",
    "candidate-selection"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 12,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 51910,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 58,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "official social media accounts controlled by ",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "official social media accounts controlled by ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official campaign announcements from ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico EU",
      "url": "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official statements from organizations where  holds a leadership position",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →