Will Trump endorse a candidate in the 2026 primaries? [ resolves 2026-09-15 (42D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lindell in Minnesota gubernatorial race before Aug 11, | 2026-09-15 | 99.0% | $2.2K | $3.7K | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…LIN | ||
| Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, | 2026-09-15 | 99.0% | — | $47K | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…BAR | ||
| Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, | 2026-09-15 | 6.8% | — | $1.1K | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…BLA | ||
| Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles mayoral race before Jun 2, | 2026-09-15 | 3.0% | — | $394 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…PRA | ||
| John Rose in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, | 2026-09-15 | 1.0% | — | $20 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…ROS | ||
| John Fleming in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary before May 16, | 2026-09-15 | 1.0% | — | $49 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…FLE | ||
| Blake Miguez in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican primary before May 16, | 2026-09-15 | 1.0% | — | $70 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…MIG | ||
| Derek Dooley in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19, | 2026-09-15 | 0.1% | — | $8 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…DOO | ||
| Buddy Carter in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19, | 2026-09-15 | 0.1% | — | $5 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…CAR | ||
| Mike Collins in the 2026 Georgia Senate Republican primary before May 19, | 2026-09-15 | 0.1% | — | $8 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…COL | ||
| Daniel Cameron in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, | 2026-09-15 | 0.1% | — | $10 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…CAM | ||
| Nate Morris in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary before May 19, | 2026-09-15 | 0.1% | — | $14 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…MOR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official social media accounts controlled by <person> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump publicly endorses Marsha Blackburn in the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial Republican primary before Aug 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and specifically reference the race or be clearly in context of the race. The endorsement must come directly from the person or through their official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements without nominee endorsement, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official social media accounts controlled by <person>" sources (18)
official social media accounts controlled by <person> venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed official campaign announcements from <candidate> venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed ABC venue-listed Politico EU venue-listed NBC venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Axios venue-listed CNN venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Politico venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed official statements from organizations where <person> holds a leadership position venue-listed CBS venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Donald Trump endorse Mike Lindell in Minnesota gubernatorial race before Aug 11, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-15 | 99% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump endorse Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles mayoral race before Jun 2, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-02 | 3% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpendorse-26sep15/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpendorse-26sep15 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpendorse-26sep15") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LF76ZFFH05",
"slug": "kxtrumpendorse-26sep15",
"question": "Will Trump endorse a candidate in the 2026 primaries?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-endorsement",
"2026-midterms",
"republican-primary",
"political-prediction",
"candidate-support"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 52408,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official social media accounts controlled by " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official social media accounts controlled by " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official campaign announcements from " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico EU",
"url": "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official statements from organizations where holds a leadership position" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}