Will Donald Trump endorse a candidate in the 2028 presidential election? [ resolves 2028-03-01 (575D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 2028-03-01 | 39.0% | $4 | $3.1K | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…VAN | ||
| Marco Rubio | 2028-03-01 | 29.0% | — | $2.5K | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…RUB | ||
| No one | 2028-03-01 | 14.0% | — | $493 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…ONE | ||
| Himself | 2028-03-01 | 8.0% | — | $105 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…DJT | ||
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 2028-03-01 | 6.0% | — | $32 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…DJR | ||
| Ron DeSantis | 2028-03-01 | 4.0% | — | $38 | C | KXTRUMPENDOR…DES |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official social media accounts controlled by <person> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump publicly endorses no one in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
An "endorsement" requires:
A clear, affirmative statement of support for candidate's election
The statement must be public (not private communications)
The endorsement must specifically reference the 2028 presidential election or be clearly in context of the 2028 presidential election
The endorsement must come directly from Donald Trump or through official channels
The following scenarios would resolve to YES:
Donald Trump states "I endorse candidate for [office]"
Donald Trump states "I support candidate" with clear reference to the 2028 presidential election
Donald Trump states "I'm voting for candidate" publicly
Donald Trump states "candidate has my full support" for the 2028 presidential election
Donald Trump appears at campaign events specifically to endorse
Donald Trump releases official endorsement through their organization
Donald Trump allows their name/image to be used in candidate's campaign materials
Statements of obvious sarcasm (or which are immediately followed by clarifications that Donald Trump is joking) are NOT encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
The Contract shall resolve immediately upon confirmation of the first qualifying endorsement in the specified race. If multiple candidates are listed for a listed race and exactly one is endorsed, that candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at $1.00 and all other named-candidate strikes resolve "No." If multiple are endorsed, each endorsed candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at a value of ($1.00 / N) rounded down to the nearest $0.01.
If no endorsement occurs before expiration, the "No one" strike resolves "Yes" at $1.00 and all named-candidate strikes resolve "No."
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official social media accounts controlled by <person>" sources (18)
- official social media accounts controlled by <person> venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- official campaign announcements from <candidate> venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Politico EU venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- official statements from organizations where <person> holds a leadership position venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpendorse28-28mar01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpendorse28-28mar01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpendorse28-28mar01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2CDRJZ44D4",
"slug": "kxtrumpendorse28-28mar01",
"question": "Will Donald Trump endorse a candidate in the 2028 presidential election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"2028-us-presidential-election",
"trump-endorsement",
"republican-primary",
"political-endorsement",
"candidate-support"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6280,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official social media accounts controlled by " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official social media accounts controlled by " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official campaign announcements from " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico EU",
"url": "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official statements from organizations where holds a leadership position" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}