Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet before Aug 1, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (9D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 22 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $3.1K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…ZEL | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $3.9K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…NET | ||
| Vladimir Putin | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $5.3K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…PUT | ||
| Mark Carney | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $3.8K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…CAR | ||
| John Thune | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $5.1K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…THU | ||
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $3.1K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…ERD | ||
| Mohammed bin Salman | 2026-08-01 | 97.0% | — | $4.4K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…MBS | ||
| Keir Starmer | 2026-08-01 | 94.0% | — | $3.7K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…STA | ||
| Ron DeSantis | 2026-08-01 | 31.0% | $276 | $2.7K | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…DES | ||
| Narendra Modi | 2026-08-01 | 20.0% | $45 | $383 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…MOD | ||
| Jensen Huang | 2026-08-01 | 14.0% | $39 | $226 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…HUA | ||
| Chuck Schumer | 2026-08-01 | 14.0% | — | $31 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…SCH | ||
| Sanae Takaichi | 2026-08-01 | 12.0% | $13 | $274 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…TAK | ||
| Xi Jinping | 2026-08-01 | 10.0% | — | $207 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…JIN | ||
| Delcy Rodriguez | 2026-08-01 | 10.0% | $20 | $145 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…ROD | ||
| Zohran Mamdani | 2026-08-01 | 9.0% | $13 | $275 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…MAM | ||
| Reza Pahlavi | 2026-08-01 | 8.0% | $17 | $170 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…PAH | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 2026-08-01 | 4.0% | — | $21 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…NEW | ||
| María Corina Machado | 2026-08-01 | 4.0% | $28 | $102 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…MCM | ||
| Hakeem Jeffries | 2026-08-01 | 3.0% | — | $26 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…JEF | ||
| Lai Ching-te | 2026-08-01 | 2.0% | — | $25 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…CHI | ||
| Jerome Powell | 2026-08-01 | 2.0% | — | $14 | C | KXTRUMPMEET-…POW |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump and Keir Starmer meet (including phone calls) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A meeting is defined as any of the following:
An in-person encounter where both parties are physically present in the same location
A virtual meeting via video conference where both parties can see and hear each other in real-time
A phone call where both parties speak directly to each other
Any combination of the above where the parties interact directly in real-time
The following qualify as meetings (though this list is not exhaustive):
Formal bilateral meetings, summits, or conferences
Informal encounters at multilateral events if documented by Source Agencies
Working dinners, lunches, or other meal meetings
Pull-aside meetings or corridor conversations if documented
Home visits or meetings at non-official locations
The following do NOT qualify as meetings:
Being present at the same event without direct interaction
Exchanging written correspondence
Communication through intermediaries without direct contact
Pre-recorded messages or asynchronous communication
Meetings cancelled after being scheduled
Near-misses where parties were scheduled to meet but did not
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (21) · single authority
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- official social media accounts verified by the platform venue-listed
- official press release distribution services venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- photographic or video evidence from accredited media organizations venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- official government websites source of record venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- official readouts from relevant governments or organizations venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-13 | 97% |
| PENDING | Donald Trump and Keir Starmer meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 94% |
| YES | Donald Trump and Mark Carney meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| YES | Donald Trump and John Thune meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 99% |
| YES | Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-07 | 99% |
| YES | Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-05 | 99% |
| YES | Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 99% |
| YES | Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu meet before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpmeet-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpmeet-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpmeet-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H798GFXQD8",
"slug": "kxtrumpmeet-26jul",
"question": "Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet before Aug 1, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-communications",
"political-interactions",
"july-2026",
"us-politics",
"diplomatic-engagement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 22,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 36996,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official government websites",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official social media accounts verified by the platform",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official press release distribution services",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "photographic or video evidence from accredited media organizations",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official readouts from relevant governments or organizations",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}