Will Trump visit more than X states in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-30 (99D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 1.0% | — | $15 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E1 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 1.0% | — | $50 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E2 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 1.0% | — | $14 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E3 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 1.0% | — | $17 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E4 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 1.0% | — | $38 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E5 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 2.0% | — | $326 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E6 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 4.0% | $5 | $346 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E7 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 4.0% | $33 | $855 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E8 | ||
| Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA… | 2026-10-30 | 22.0% | $436 | $2.0K | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…-E9 | ||
| 10 | 2026-10-30 | 56.0% | $624 | $2.2K | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…E10 | ||
| 11 | 2026-10-30 | 9.0% | $16 | $128 | C | KXTRUMPNUMST…E11 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) is exactly 1 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (1)
- the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 2 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 1% |
| NO | Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 3 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 1% |
| NO | Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 4 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 1% |
| NO | Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 5 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 1% |
| NO | Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 6 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 2% |
| NO | Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 1 in Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Trump 50-state visit tracker prices at near-certainty 95% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices completion of Trump's 50-state visit count at 95%, the market has essentially priced this in.
- $18K in 24h is 61% of all-time volume, the highest all-time share in this batch, on a small absolute base.
- A surge on a 95%-priced contract likely reflects a specific recent visit bringing the total to the threshold.
- Remaining 5% prices schedule disruption or tracker verification lag before resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpnumstates-26aug01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpnumstates-26aug01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpnumstates-26aug01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VX405770H2",
"slug": "kxtrumpnumstates-26aug01",
"question": "Will Trump visit more than X states in July 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-travel",
"us-politics-2026",
"state-visits",
"quantitative-outcome",
"july-2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6063,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}