Will Trump pardon anyone in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 34 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Steve Buyer	2027-01-01	92.0%	—	$3.8K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BUY`
Rachel Cherwitz	2027-01-01	22.0%	$2	$1.2K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…CHE`
Nicole Daedone	2027-01-01	19.0%	—	$1.1K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…DAE`
Keonne Rodriguez	2027-01-01	17.0%	—	$891	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ROD`
John Kiriakou	2027-01-01	11.0%	—	$2.9K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…KIR`
Steve Bannon	2027-01-01	10.0%	—	$804	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BAN`
Robin Smith	2027-01-01	9.8%	—	$48	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…SMI`
Elizabeth Holmes	2027-01-01	9.4%	—	$715	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HOL`
Leonard Glenn Francis	2027-01-01	9.0%	—	$229	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…FRA`
Jared Kushner	2027-01-01	8.7%	—	$494	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…KUS`
Tim Leissner	2027-01-01	8.4%	—	$327	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…LEI`
Sean Combs	2027-01-01	7.9%	—	$3.3K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…COM`
Larry Householder	2027-01-01	7.8%	—	$7	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HOU`
Matt Borges	2027-01-01	7.6%	—	$0	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BOR`
Ghislaine Maxwell	2027-01-01	7.5%	—	$5.2K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MAX`
Tal Alexander	2027-01-01	7.5%	—	$1	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ALE`
Julian Assange	2027-01-01	7.3%	$1	$293	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ASS`
Sam Bankman-Fried	2027-01-01	7.2%	$18	$4.6K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…SBF`
Bob Menendez	2027-01-01	7.0%	—	$45	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MEN`
Braden John Karony	2027-01-01	7.0%	—	$24	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BJK`
Jho Low	2027-01-01	7.0%	$14	$255	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…LOW`
Charlie Javice	2027-01-01	7.0%	—	$673	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…JAV`
Edward Snowden	2027-01-01	6.3%	$2	$444	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…SNO`
Bill Hwang	2027-01-01	6.3%	—	$157	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HWA`
Torence Hatch	2027-01-01	6.1%	—	$389	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HAT`
Kenneth Petty	2027-01-01	5.8%	—	$566	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…PET`
Martin Shkreli	2027-01-01	5.7%	—	$1.4K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MSH`
Eric Adams	2027-01-01	5.6%	—	$178	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ADA`
Derek Chauvin	2027-01-01	5.0%	—	$4.2K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HAU`
Roger Ver	2027-01-01	5.0%	—	$177	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…VER`
Aimee Bock	2027-01-01	4.5%	—	$5	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BOC`
Joseph Maldonado	2027-01-01	4.3%	—	$28	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MAL`
Nicolás Maduro	2027-01-01	4.3%	—	$763	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MAD`
Donald Trump	2027-01-01	3.5%	—	$405	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…DJT`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	White House	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 34 markets · share this text

If Donald Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House"

sources (2) · single authority

White House committed source New York Times venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
PENDING	Will Steve Buyer receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?	kalshi	`2026-06-06`	`92%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumppardon-27jan01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumppardon-27jan01`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumppardon-27jan01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5",
  "slug": "kxtrumppardon-27jan01",
  "question": "Will Trump pardon anyone in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-pardons",
    "presidential-authority",
    "2026-politics",
    "criminal-justice",
    "executive-power"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 34,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 35550,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "White House",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "White House",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "White House",
      "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →