Will Trump pardon anyone in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Buyer | 2027-01-01 | 92.0% | — | $3.8K | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…BUY | ||
| John Kiriakou | 2027-01-01 | 31.0% | — | $5.8K | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…KIR | ||
| Keonne Rodriguez | 2027-01-01 | 25.0% | $2 | $725 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…ROD | ||
| Nicole Daedone | 2027-01-01 | 23.0% | $1 | $451 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…DAE | ||
| Bill Hwang | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $152 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…HWA | ||
| Tim Leissner | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $61 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…LEI | ||
| Rachel Cherwitz | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $397 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…CHE | ||
| Steve Bannon | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…BAN | ||
| Larry Householder | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $13 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…HOU | ||
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $88 | $6.0K | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…SBF | ||
| Jared Kushner | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $588 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…KUS | ||
| Kenneth Petty | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $861 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…PET | ||
| Tal Alexander | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…ALE | ||
| Robin Smith | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $57 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…SMI | ||
| Jho Low | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $1 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…LOW | ||
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $29 | $5.2K | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…MAX | ||
| Sean Combs | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $900 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…COM | ||
| Torence Hatch | 2027-01-01 | 9.4% | — | $500 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…HAT | ||
| Eric Adams | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $207 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…ADA | ||
| Edward Snowden | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $313 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…SNO | ||
| Elizabeth Holmes | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $194 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…HOL | ||
| Donald Trump | 2027-01-01 | 8.9% | — | $601 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…DJT | ||
| Aimee Bock | 2027-01-01 | 8.3% | — | $8 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…BOC | ||
| Joseph Maldonado | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $24 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…MAL | ||
| Bob Menendez | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $35 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…MEN | ||
| Roger Ver | 2027-01-01 | 6.6% | — | $122 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…VER | ||
| Derek Chauvin | 2027-01-01 | 6.3% | — | $3.0K | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…HAU | ||
| Julian Assange | 2027-01-01 | 6.1% | — | $116 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…ASS | ||
| Nicolás Maduro | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $994 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…MAD | ||
| Matt Borges | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $0 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…BOR | ||
| Martin Shkreli | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $434 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…MSH | ||
| Braden John Karony | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $0 | A | KXTRUMPPARDO…BJK |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "New York Times" sources (2) · single authority
- New York Times venue-listed
- White House source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENDING | Will Steve Buyer receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | 92% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumppardon-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumppardon-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumppardon-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5",
"slug": "kxtrumppardon-27jan01",
"question": "Will Trump pardon anyone in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-pardons",
"us-politics",
"criminal-justice",
"2027",
"prediction-market"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 32584,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}