Will a Trump passport be issued? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2027-01 ]
Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jul 20, 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | 2026-07-04 | 0.0% | $0 | $2.3K | C | KXTRUMPPASSP…L04 | ||
| Jul 20, 2026 | 2026-07-27 | 68.0% | — | $643 | C | KXTRUMPPASSP…L20 | ||
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-08 | 75.0% | $225 | $7.2K | C | KXTRUMPPASSP…G01 | ||
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2026-09-08 | 85.0% | — | $0 | C | KXTRUMPPASSP…P01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 81.0% | — | $58 | C | KXTRUMPPASSP…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face after May 04 02:00 PM ET and before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (23)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- South China Morning Post venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Verge venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- ABC News Australia venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- CBC venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- United States Department of State from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jul 4, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-04 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumppassport-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumppassport-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumppassport-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V9X0KCKYZ7",
"slug": "kxtrumppassport-26",
"question": "Will a Trump passport be issued?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-passport",
"us-state-department",
"political-merchandise",
"2026",
"identity-document"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10198,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "South China Morning Post",
"url": "https://www.scmp.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Verge",
"url": "https://www.theverge.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News Australia",
"url": "http://www.abc.net.au/news/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBC",
"url": "https://www.cbc.ca/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "United States Department of State",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}