Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | $397 | $7.5K | B | KXTRUMPTARIF…N-X |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Supreme Court | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court" sources (1) · single authority
- Supreme Court source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- SCOTUS tariff case by year-end holds at low conviction Kalshi 22%
- Kalshi prediction market prices only 22% on the Supreme Court agreeing to hear a case on Trump's tariffs before end of 2026.
- The Court's willingness to rule against Trump on birthright citizenship shows judicial independence, but a tariff case requires a circuit split or emergency application the market views as unlikely this year.
- The birthright ruling itself does not directly bear on tariff litigation timelines, making this a weaker cross-market read.
- Resolves via Supreme Court docket; the Court must formally grant certiorari or agree to an expedited review before December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumptariffhear-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumptariffhear-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumptariffhear-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RJRTFQZDJ0",
"slug": "kxtrumptariffhear-27jan",
"question": "Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"supreme-court",
"tariffs",
"trump",
"2026",
"judicial-review"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7476,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Supreme Court",
"url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}