Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will Donald Trump issue a statement about explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump makes at least 1 statement explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (20) · single authority
The Washington Post venue-listed official social media accounts verified by the platform committed source official press release distribution services venue-listed Fox News venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Semafor venue-listed The Information venue-listed ABC venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed NBC venue-listed Axios venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed Politico venue-listed official government websites where such statements may be posted venue-listed CNN venue-listed Reuters venue-listed official websites of <persons> venue-listed CBS venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Donald Trump issue a statement about explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Sep 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Trump publicly calling out Thune stays below 40% Kalshi 39%
- Kalshi prices a 39% chance Trump publicly calls for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader.
- The White House warning that Trump's patience is running out is an escalation signal, yet Kalshi keeps the probability below 40%, the market is not pricing an imminent public break as the base case.
- The Trump-Thune rift is also entangled with the stalled election bill and the crypto CLARITY Act impasse, providing multiple pressure vectors that could move this probability higher.
- Kalshi resolves via The Washington Post reporting a public call by Trump; the distinction between private pressure and a public demand is the key resolution edge case.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-57VMK4QRS7",
"slug": "kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01",
"question": "Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-thune",
"senate-leadership",
"2026-politics",
"public-statements",
"gop-internal"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11036,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official social media accounts verified by the platform",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official social media accounts verified by the platform",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official press release distribution services",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites where such statements may be posted",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official websites of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}