Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will Donald Trump issue a statement about explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump makes at least 1 statement explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (20) · single authority
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- official social media accounts verified by the platform source of record venue-listed
- official press release distribution services venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- official government websites where such statements may be posted venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- official websites of <persons> venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
recent wire items
- Trump publicly calling out Thune stays below 40% Kalshi 39%
- Kalshi prices a 39% chance Trump publicly calls for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader.
- The White House warning that Trump's patience is running out is an escalation signal, yet Kalshi keeps the probability below 40%, the market is not pricing an imminent public break as the base case.
- The Trump-Thune rift is also entangled with the stalled election bill and the crypto CLARITY Act impasse, providing multiple pressure vectors that could move this probability higher.
- Kalshi resolves via The Washington Post reporting a public call by Trump; the distinction between private pressure and a public demand is the key resolution edge case.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-57VMK4QRS7",
"slug": "kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01",
"question": "Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-thune",
"senate-leadership",
"2026-politics",
"public-statements",
"gop-internal"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5937,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official social media accounts verified by the platform",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official social media accounts verified by the platform",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official press release distribution services",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites where such statements may be posted",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official websites of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}