Will the Supreme Court rule that the President can fire FTC Commissioners at will? [ resolves 2027-08-01 (391D) ]
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter | 2027-08-01 | 93.0% | $44 | $43K | A | KXTRUMPVSLAUGHTER |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Supreme Court | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935) such that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will, after Issuance and before the August 1, 2027. The market resolves to No if the Supreme Court affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision before August 1, 2027, the market also resolves to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court" sources (1) · single authority
- Supreme Court source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpvslaughter/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpvslaughter |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpvslaughter") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VVFT7XSY97",
"slug": "kxtrumpvslaughter",
"question": "Will the Supreme Court rule that the President can fire FTC Commissioners at will?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"supreme-court",
"trump-administration",
"ftc",
"executive-power",
"removal-authority"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 43446,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Supreme Court",
"url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}