Will Trump post on Truth Social during the week of August 2-8? [ resolves 2026-08-09 (5D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 80 | 2026-08-09 | 1.0% | $68 | $186 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…T80 | ||
| Between 80 and 99 | 2026-08-09 | 1.0% | $69 | $174 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…B89 | ||
| Between 100 and 119 | 2026-08-09 | 2.0% | $155 | $311 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…109 | ||
| Between 120 and 139 | 2026-08-09 | 3.0% | $196 | $342 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…129 | ||
| Between 140 and 159 | 2026-08-09 | 13.0% | $425 | $1.0K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…149 | ||
| Between 160 and 179 | 2026-08-09 | 25.0% | $1.1K | $2.0K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…169 | ||
| Between 180 and 199 | 2026-08-09 | 27.0% | $1.2K | $2.0K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…189 | ||
| Between 200 and 219 | 2026-08-09 | 15.0% | $1.1K | $1.7K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…209 | ||
| Between 220 and 240 | 2026-08-09 | 8.0% | $723 | $1.1K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…230 | ||
| > 240 | 2026-08-09 | 7.0% | $519 | $817 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…240 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Roll Call | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Aug 2, 2026 to Aug 8, 2026 is below 80, then the market resolves to Yes.
The observation period begins at 12:00 AM ET on Aug 2, 2026 and ends at 11:59 PM ET on Aug 8, 2026. The primary resolution source for this market is Roll Call. In the event that Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count. Replies are included only if captured by Roll Call. The post count will be recorded at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 9, 2026. Posts deleted as of the Expiration Time will not be included. "Between" is inclusive of the lower and upper bound.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Roll Call" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Roll Call source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtruthsocial-26aug08/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtruthsocial-26aug08 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtruthsocial-26aug08") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RGW030NDW6",
"slug": "kxtruthsocial-26aug08",
"question": "Will Trump post on Truth Social during the week of August 2-8?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-social-media",
"weekly-activity-metric",
"truth-social",
"2026",
"behavioral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9646,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Roll Call",
"resolution_source_url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/social/?platform=truth+social&sort=date&sort_order=desc&page=1",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Roll Call",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Roll Call",
"url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/social/?platform=truth+social&sort=date&sort_order=desc&page=1",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}