Will Trump post on Truth Social between July 19-25? [ resolved 2026-07-26 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 80 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | — | $87 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…T80 | ||
| Between 80 and 99 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $0 | $111 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…B89 | ||
| Between 100 and 119 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | — | $226 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…109 | ||
| Between 120 and 139 | 2026-07-26 | 100.0% | $1.4K | $3.3K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…129 | ||
| Between 140 and 159 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $1.1K | $7.2K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…149 | ||
| Between 160 and 179 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $538 | $3.4K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…169 | ||
| Between 180 and 199 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $259 | $2.2K | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…189 | ||
| Between 200 and 219 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $30 | $539 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…209 | ||
| Between 220 and 240 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $27 | $349 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…230 | ||
| > 240 | 2026-07-26 | 0.0% | $11 | $236 | C | KXTRUTHSOCIA…240 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Roll Call | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Jul 19, 2026 to Jul 25, 2026 is below 80, then the market resolves to Yes.
The observation period begins at 12:00 AM ET on Jul 19, 2026 and ends at 11:59 PM ET on Jul 25, 2026. The primary resolution source for this market is Roll Call. In the event that Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion. Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count. Replies are included only if captured by Roll Call. The post count will be recorded at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 26, 2026. Posts deleted as of the Expiration Time will not be included. "Between" is inclusive of the lower and upper bound.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Roll Call" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Roll Call source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Donald Trump make below 80 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make between 100 and 119 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| YES | Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 100% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make between 180 and 199 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 219 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make between 220 and 240 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Donald Trump make above 240 Truth Social posts the week of Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-26 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Trump Truth Social post count near certainty at 99% 99% · $19K 24h
- Kalshi prices Trump posting 120, 139 Truth Social posts in the week of Jul 19 at 99%, effectively resolved.
- 32% of all-time volume transacted in 24h as the contract approaches settlement.
- Actual post counts for the week are likely observable, driving one-sided liquidity to lock in the outcome.
- Contract resolves on weekly post tally; 99% leaves virtually no residual uncertainty.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtruthsocial-26jul25/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtruthsocial-26jul25 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtruthsocial-26jul25") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XPZP0MG799",
"slug": "kxtruthsocial-26jul25",
"question": "Will Trump post on Truth Social between July 19-25?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-social-media",
"weekly-activity",
"posting-volume",
"2026",
"behavioral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17606,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 76,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Roll Call",
"resolution_source_url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/social/?platform=truth+social&sort=date&sort_order=desc&page=1",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Roll Call",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Roll Call",
"url": "https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/social/?platform=truth+social&sort=date&sort_order=desc&page=1",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}