Will Tesla deliver vehicles in Q2? [ resolves 2026-08-21 (79D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 310,000 | 2026-08-21 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 320,000 | 2026-08-21 | 96.0% | — | $897 | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 330,000 | 2026-08-21 | 99.0% | — | $65 | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 340,000 | 2026-08-21 | 99.0% | — | $344 | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 350,000 | 2026-08-21 | 93.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 360,000 | 2026-08-21 | 88.0% | — | $902 | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 370,000 | 2026-08-21 | 85.0% | — | $960 | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 380,000 | 2026-08-21 | 88.0% | — | $2.8K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 390,000 | 2026-08-21 | 91.0% | $523 | $4.1K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 400,000 | 2026-08-21 | 86.0% | $25 | $5.6K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 410,000 | 2026-08-21 | 69.0% | $96 | $7.3K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 420,000 | 2026-08-21 | 66.0% | $57 | $7.4K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 430,000 | 2026-08-21 | 58.0% | $32 | $8.9K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 440,000 | 2026-08-21 | 44.0% | $30 | $9.6K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 450,000 | 2026-08-21 | 37.0% | $3 | $11K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| ≥ 460,000 | 2026-08-21 | 28.0% | $15 | $6.3K | A | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtsla-26juldeliv/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtsla-26juldeliv.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtsla-26juldeliv") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-40YSQ5G480",
"slug": "kxtsla-26juldeliv",
"question": "Will Tesla deliver vehicles in Q2?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"tesla",
"q2-2026",
"deliveries",
"automotive",
"earnings-related"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 68201,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}