Will Tesla Inc. report above 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2026? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-08 ]
Will Tesla Inc. report above 430000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 450000 | 2026-07-02 | 100.0% | $521 | $14K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 310000 | 2026-08-21 | 97.0% | — | $1.0K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 320000 | 2026-08-21 | 96.0% | — | $897 | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 330000 | 2026-08-21 | 99.0% | — | $89 | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 340000 | 2026-08-21 | 92.0% | — | $331 | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 350000 | 2026-08-21 | 99.0% | — | $2.0K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 360000 | 2026-08-21 | 98.0% | — | $2.1K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 370000 | 2026-08-21 | 92.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 380000 | 2026-08-21 | 96.0% | $53 | $3.8K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 390000 | 2026-08-21 | 91.0% | — | $5.3K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 400000 | 2026-08-21 | 80.0% | $117 | $6.8K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 410000 | 2026-08-21 | 74.0% | $51 | $13K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 420000 | 2026-08-21 | 72.0% | $376 | $13K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 430000 | 2026-08-21 | 51.0% | $628 | $9.6K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 440000 | 2026-08-21 | 37.0% | $369 | $10K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 460000 | 2026-08-21 | 14.0% | $140 | $4.5K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tesla Inc. reports above 310000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" sources (1) · single authority
- Fiscal.ai source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Tesla Inc. report above 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Tesla Q2 delivery beat above 450K sits deep in high-conviction territory 90% · $35K 24h
- 90% price reflects strong market confidence that Tesla will report above 450K total Q2 2026 deliveries.
- $35K in 24h, 33% of all-time Kalshi volume, marks a notable acceleration as delivery reporting nears.
- Tesla is expected to report Q2 deliveries in the first days of July; this surge is a pre-announcement positioning wave.
- 10% residual risk covers supply chain disruptions, demand shortfalls, or a reporting methodology change.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtsla-26juldeliv/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtsla-26juldeliv |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtsla-26juldeliv") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-40YSQ5G480",
"slug": "kxtsla-26juldeliv",
"question": "Will Tesla Inc. report above 450000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"tesla",
"q2-2026",
"deliveries",
"automotive",
"earnings-related"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 87827,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fiscal.ai",
"url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}