Tesla total production, Q2 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-21 (46D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 320000 | 2026-08-21 | 99.0% | — | $1.6K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 340000 | 2026-08-21 | 99.0% | — | $257 | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 360000 | 2026-08-21 | 98.0% | $13 | $15K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 380000 | 2026-08-21 | 90.0% | $29 | $8.1K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 400000 | 2026-08-21 | 71.0% | $1.2K | $21K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 420000 | 2026-08-21 | 62.0% | $1.4K | $25K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 440000 | 2026-08-21 | 36.0% | $812 | $21K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 | ||
| > 460000 | 2026-08-21 | 15.0% | $35 | $3.1K | C | KXTSLA-26JUL…0.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Tesla Inc. reports above 320000 total production in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" sources (1) · single authority
- Fiscal.ai source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtsla-26julprod/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtsla-26julprod |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtsla-26julprod") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y8MH0SXWZ0",
"slug": "kxtsla-26julprod",
"question": "Tesla total production, Q2 2026",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"tesla",
"q2-2026",
"production-volume",
"automotive",
"quarterly-earnings"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 95581,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fiscal.ai",
"url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}