Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%? [ resolves 2027-05-26 (357D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 2027-05-26 | 0.1% | — | $332 | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…-P2 | ||
| 5% | 2027-05-26 | 0.1% | — | $216 | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…-P2 | ||
| 10% | 2027-05-26 | 0.1% | $13 | $445 | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…-P7 | ||
| 10% | 2027-05-26 | 0.1% | — | $111 | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…-P7 | ||
| 15% | 2027-05-26 | 0.2% | $10 | $1.2K | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…P12 | ||
| 15% | 2027-05-26 | 0.1% | $1 | $75 | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…P12 | ||
| 20% | 2027-05-26 | 0.7% | $100 | $5.3K | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…P17 | ||
| 20% | 2027-05-26 | 0.1% | $1 | $54 | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…P17 | ||
| 100% | 2027-05-26 | 99.2% | $8.8K | $1.25M | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…P60 | ||
| 100% | 2027-05-26 | 0.1% | — | $65 | A | KXTXRSENRUNO…P60 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 20% and 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- **For percentage points**: the vote percentage received by Ken Paxton minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.
- **For raw votes**: the total votes received by Ken Paxton minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Ken Paxton if Ken Paxton wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Ken Paxton loses.
- **For electoral votes**: the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Ken Paxton wins, or the electoral votes received by Ken Paxton minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Ken Paxton does not.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Ken Paxton runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Ken Paxton will be summed.
If Ken Paxton wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Ken Paxton loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Ken Paxton ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Ken Paxton is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ recent wire items
- Paxton TX Senate runoff margin: 99% on $668K
- Kalshi consensus at 99% implies Paxton runoff victory is near-certain.
- $668K in 24h represents 58% of all-time volume, dominant single-session flow.
- Runoff outcome likely imminent or just concluded, prompting settlement-driven volume.
- Resolution tied to certified runoff result; residual 1% reflects tail/administrative risk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WDW9695BR8",
"slug": "kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-politics",
"2027-election",
"republican-primary",
"senate-race",
"margin-of-victory"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1253838,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}