Will the Texas Senate election result in an exact outcome matching a specific predetermined candidate and margin by 2028? [ resolves 2028-01-03 (546D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner be Republican | 2028-01-03 | 61.0% | — | $68K | A | KXTXSENOUTCO…TAL | ||
| Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner be Democrat | 2028-01-03 | 42.0% | $11 | $21K | A | KXTXSENOUTCO…PAX | ||
| John Cornyn AND General Election Winner be Democrat | 2028-01-03 | 0.1% | — | $21 | A | KXTXSENOUTCO…COR | ||
| John Cornyn AND General Election Winner be Republican | 2028-01-03 | 0.1% | — | $25 | A | KXTXSENOUTCO…TAL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: John Cornyn, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: GOP Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will GOP Nominee be John Cornyn AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027? | kalshi | 2028-01-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will GOP Nominee be John Cornyn AND General Election Winner be Republican for Jan 2027? | kalshi | 2028-01-03 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Paxton Republican Texas Senate win consensus holds at majority odds Kalshi 62%
- Kalshi prediction market prices 62% on Ken Paxton winning the GOP nomination AND the Republican candidate winning the Texas Senate general election.
- The Supreme Court campaign finance ruling removing party spending caps is consistent with, and modestly supportive of, the above-even Paxton win probability.
- A separate Kalshi contract at 39% on at least five Senate Republicans losing re-election in 2026 provides cross-market context on the broader GOP Senate risk environment.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics data feed, note the unusual resolution source; traders should verify the precise settlement mechanic for this contract.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtxsenoutcome-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtxsenoutcome-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtxsenoutcome-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KDQ9VR7CG1",
"slug": "kxtxsenoutcome-27jan",
"question": "Will the Texas Senate election result in an exact outcome matching a specific predetermined candidate and margin by 2028?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-senate",
"2026-election",
"exact-outcome",
"us-politics",
"senate-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 88101,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}