U.S. unemployment rate (U-3), July 2026 [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-08-07 | 100.0% | $1.5K | $7.9K | A | KXU3-26JUL-T3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-08-07 | 100.0% | $24K | $39K | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.0 | ||
| ≥ 3.7% | 2026-11-06 | 99.0% | — | $368 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T3.7 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2026-11-06 | 99.0% | $218 | $1.2K | A | KXU3-26JUL-T3.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-11-06 | 66.0% | $4.1K | $22K | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-11-06 | 43.0% | $9.4K | $40K | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-11-06 | 9.0% | $210 | $7.5K | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-11-06 | 3.0% | $2 | $521 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-11-06 | 1.0% | $6 | $36 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-11-06 | 1.0% | — | $11 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-11-06 | 2.0% | — | $6 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2026-11-06 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2026-11-06 | 1.0% | — | $3 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T4.9 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-11-06 | 1.0% | — | $0 | A | KXU3-26JUL-T5.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July? | kalshi | 2026-08-07 | 100% |
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July? | kalshi | 2026-08-07 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- July U-3 above 3.9% holds at 95% as volume tops half of all-time 95% · $65K 24h
- At 95%, Kalshi market treats a sub-3.9% July print as nearly impossible.
- $65K in 24h equals 52% of all-time volume, majority of lifetime activity in one session.
- August 7 timing aligns with imminent BLS July employment report release.
- Resolves on the official July U-3 unemployment rate.
- Traders back July U-3 above 4.0% at 88% ahead of BLS data 88% · $46K 24h
- 88% price means the market strongly expects July unemployment to clear the 4.0% threshold.
- $46K in 24h covers 42% of all-time volume, concentrated on today's likely BLS release.
- Paired with the 3.9% contract at 95%, the spread implies consensus for a 4.0%-range print.
- Resolves on the official BLS July U-3 unemployment rate.
- Fresh volume backs U-3 unemployment above 3.9% in July 96% · $52K 24h
- 96% pricing means the market treats above-3.9% unemployment as near-certain for July.
- 24h volume of $52K is 85% of all-time, near-record activity flooding a single jobs contract.
- Surge likely driven by fresh BLS data or pre-release positioning ahead of the July jobs report.
- Resolves on official BLS U-3 release; 96% leaves almost no room for a surprise miss.
- July U-3 above 4% stays the heavy favorite on fresh volume 90% · $23K 24h
- At 90%, Kalshi prices a July unemployment rate above 4% as nearly certain ahead of the BLS release.
- 24h volume is 60% of all-time, the largest single-session share in this contract's history.
- The surge likely reflects positioning ahead of the July jobs report, the contract's imminent resolution catalyst.
- Resolves on the BLS-reported U-3 rate for July 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4MK3M5Z6K0",
"slug": "kxu3-26jul",
"question": "U.S. unemployment rate (U-3), July 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment",
"u-3-rate",
"labor-economics",
"2026",
"monthly-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 119093,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}