Unemployment rate (U-3), May 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-05 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $707 | A | KXU3-26MAY-T3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $369 | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $19K | $77K | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $1.8K | $20K | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $600 | $7.0K | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $56 | $2.1K | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | $13 | $119 | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — | $10 | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — | $197 | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — | $9 | A | KXU3-26MAY-T4.8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in May? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (10 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GX15VWGX92",
"slug": "kxu3-26may",
"question": "Unemployment rate (U-3), May 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment-rate",
"us-economics",
"labor-market",
"may-2026",
"macroeconomic-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 106944,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}