Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026 [ resolves 2027-02-05 (185D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.7% | 2027-02-05 | 92.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXU3-26OCT-T3.7 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2027-02-05 | 94.0% | — | $685 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T3.8 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2027-02-05 | 83.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXU3-26OCT-T3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-02-05 | 71.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2027-02-05 | 68.0% | — | $248 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2027-02-05 | 55.0% | — | $480 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2027-02-05 | 47.0% | — | $222 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2027-02-05 | 33.0% | — | $84 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-02-05 | 26.0% | — | $34 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2027-02-05 | 20.0% | — | $130 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2027-02-05 | 12.0% | — | $2 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2027-02-05 | 3.0% | — | $15 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2027-02-05 | 4.0% | — | $11 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.9 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-02-05 | 7.0% | — | $15 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T5.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
recent wire items
- Odds hold above 50% that October unemployment tops 4.1% 70% · $17K 24h
- Market at 70%, majority conviction that the October U-3 print will exceed the 4.1% threshold.
- 24h volume of $17K is 58% of all-time, a strong session ahead of the October jobs release.
- October employment report drops early November; volume surge signals traders loading positions pre-event.
- Resolves on BLS October unemployment rate release.
- October jobless rate above 4.1% trades as the likely outcome 77% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices October U-3 unemployment above 4.1% at 77%, reflecting a strong consensus for continued labor market softening.
- 58% of all-time volume, $18.1K, traded in 24 hours as the October jobs window approaches.
- Elevated odds and fresh volume suggest macro desks are locking in a bearish labor view ahead of the BLS release.
- Resolves on October 2026 BLS unemployment report; 77% leaves a 23% tail for a surprise improvement.
- October unemployment odds cluster near 4.2-4.3 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range: 72% above 4.1%, 58% above 4.2%, but only 43% above 4.3%.
- July's 4.1% reading is consistent with the ladder's distribution, which already prices meaningful upside from current levels by October.
- The 87% probability above 4.0% reflects market skepticism that the labor market can hold near full employment through year-end.
- A companion Kalshi ladder for September unemployment (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) shows nearly identical 4.2-4.3% implied range, suggesting no near-term relief expected.
- Unemployment rate odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies a most-likely October 2026 unemployment rate in the 4.1-4.2% range: 68% above 4.1%, 48% above 4.2%, sharp drop to 33% above 4.4%.
- The decades-low 187,000 claims print is consistent with a labor market that keeps the unemployment rate near current levels, the market is not pricing in a deterioration.
- The distribution shows 92% odds above 3.7%, indicating virtually no expectation of a labor market collapse despite ongoing tariff and inflation uncertainty.
- The right tail, only 7% above 5.0%, reflects how much the market is discounting recession-level unemployment even with macroeconomic crosscurrents.
- US unemployment rate odds stay near 4.1-4.2 percent for October Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October 2026 U-3 unemployment in the 4.1-4.2% range: 68% probability above 4.1%, dropping to 48% above 4.2%.
- Claims printing at 187K versus 212K expected is a sharply bullish labor signal, yet the ladder still centers unemployment near 4.1-4.2%, the market has not shifted to a sub-4.0% modal outcome.
- The 71% probability above 4.0% suggests the market treats today's claims beat as a low-layoff story rather than evidence of aggressive rehiring that would compress the unemployment rate materially.
- Resolution source is the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release for October 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
"slug": "kxu3-26oct",
"question": "Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment",
"us-labor-market",
"economic-indicator",
"october-2026",
"macro-economics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5827,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}