Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026 [ resolves 2027-02-05 (185D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.7% | 2027-02-05 | 92.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXU3-26OCT-T3.7 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2027-02-05 | 94.0% | — | $685 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T3.8 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2027-02-05 | 83.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXU3-26OCT-T3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-02-05 | 71.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2027-02-05 | 68.0% | — | $248 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2027-02-05 | 55.0% | — | $480 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2027-02-05 | 47.0% | — | $222 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2027-02-05 | 33.0% | — | $84 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-02-05 | 26.0% | — | $34 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2027-02-05 | 20.0% | — | $130 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2027-02-05 | 12.0% | — | $2 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2027-02-05 | 3.0% | — | $15 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2027-02-05 | 4.0% | — | $11 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T4.9 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-02-05 | 7.0% | — | $15 | A | KXU3-26OCT-T5.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
recent wire items
- October unemployment rate priced near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October U-3 in the 4.1-4.2% range; 68% chance above 4.1%, falling sharply to 26% above 4.2%.
- Analyst forecast of an edging-lower rate aligns with the ladder's 92% probability above 4.0%, the market sees near-zero chance of a sub-4.0% print.
- September stood at 4.2% per Story 6; the ladder's sharp drop above 4.2% signals the market sees little chance of a re-acceleration in unemployment.
- Resolves via BLS Employment Situation; the same release that settles the payrolls ladder, so both prints arrive simultaneously Friday.
- October unemployment rate stays near 4.1 percent in market pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts October U-3 in the 4.1-4.2% range: 61% above 4.1%, dropping sharply to 26% above 4.2%.
- The 99% probability above 3.7% and 90% above 4.0% show the market firmly expects the rate to remain elevated.
- The sharp cliff between 4.1% and 4.2% indicates strong consensus around a 4.1% print, with limited tail risk above 4.3%.
- Payrolls ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies soft but positive hiring, internally consistent with a stable unemployment rate near 4.1%.
- Unemployment rate odds cluster just above 4.1 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts 61% odds on October U-3 above 4.1% but only 26% above 4.2%, pinning the market-implied rate in the 4.1-4.2% band.
- The 4.2% consensus forecast sits right at the market-implied upper edge, meaning the prediction market is broadly aligned with analyst expectations.
- Only a 6% chance is priced above 4.3%, making a significant upside unemployment surprise a long shot in the Kalshi distribution.
- With Fed Chair Warsh in a wait-and-see posture after the October meeting, a 4.2% print would keep a December hike on the table; the Kalshi Fed funds ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) puts 72% on the upper bound above 4.0% following the next decision.
- October unemployment rate priced near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices the October U-3 rate near 4.1%-4.2%: 61% above 4.1% but only 27% above 4.2%.
- Barron's thesis that the labor market is weaker than it looks is only partially reflected, the market does tilt above 4.0% (90% probability) but stops well short of pricing a sharp deterioration.
- The 4.0% strike at 90% versus 4.3% at just 6% shows the market sees mild softening, not a breakdown, at odds with the most bearish labor reads.
- The companion Fed funds ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) prices 72% above 4.00%, suggesting the market sees the Fed as unlikely to pause hikes even with unemployment edging higher.
- Unemployment rate for October seen near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins October unemployment in the 4.1-4.2% range: 68% above 4.1%, but only 31% above 4.2%, with a sharp tail compression above that.
- September data described as 'stable and full employment' is broadly consistent with the ladder's concentration around 4.1-4.2%, not a deterioration.
- The weak October payrolls print of 29,000 jobs (Story 8) introduces upside risk to the unemployment rate, putting the 31% above 4.2% reading in sharper focus.
- Resolution via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; the October data will be the definitive settlement trigger.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
"slug": "kxu3-26oct",
"question": "Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment",
"us-labor-market",
"economic-indicator",
"october-2026",
"macro-economics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5827,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}