CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September? [ resolves 2026-10 – 2027-01 ]

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in September?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 3.8% 2026-10-02 100.0%
— $766
A KXU3-26SEP-T3.8
≥ 3.9% 2026-10-02 100.0%
— $453
A KXU3-26SEP-T3.9
≥ 4% 2026-10-02 100.0%
$1.3K $2.8K
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.0
≥ 4.1% 2026-10-02 100.0%
— $459
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.1
≥ 4.2% 2026-10-02 0.0%
— $418
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.2
≥ 4.3% 2026-10-02 0.0%
— $54
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.3
≥ 3.7% 2027-01-01 91.0%
— $294
A KXU3-26SEP-T3.7
≥ 4.4% 2027-01-01 17.0%
$116 $655
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.4
≥ 4.5% 2027-01-01 25.0%
— $61
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.5
≥ 4.6% 2027-01-01 8.0%
$0 $1
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.6
≥ 4.7% 2027-01-01 5.0%
— $1
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.7
≥ 4.8% 2027-01-01 7.0%
— $7
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.8
≥ 4.9% 2027-01-01 8.0%
— $0
A KXU3-26SEP-T4.9
≥ 5% 2027-01-01 4.0%
— $0
A KXU3-26SEP-T5.0
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Bureau of Labor Statistics link Kalshi Staff Other —
verbatim rules
kalshi 14 markets · share this text
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗
sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in September? kalshi 2026-10-02 100%
YES Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in September? kalshi 2026-10-02 100%
YES Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September? kalshi 2026-10-02 100%
YES Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in September? kalshi 2026-10-02 100%
NO Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in September? kalshi 2026-10-02 0%
NO Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September? kalshi 2026-10-02 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
  • 2026-10-02T07:48:52+00:00 volume-spike
    Odds hold firm on U-3 staying above 3.9% in September 92% · $47K 24h
    • 92% price signals strong conviction that September unemployment prints above 3.9%.
    • $47K in 24h is 25% of all-time volume, a material single-session concentration at a quarter-mark milestone.
    • Paired with the 3.8% and 4.0% contracts, the curve implies the market's modal range is 3.9%, 4.0% for the September U-3.
    • Resolves on BLS official September 2026 U-3 release.
  • 2026-10-02T07:48:52+00:00 volume-spike
    Traders lock in U-3 above 3.8% for September 99% · $27K 24h
    • 99% price treats U-3 clearing 3.8% as a near-certainty ahead of Friday's release.
    • 24h volume of $27K is 54% of all-time handle, majority of lifetime action in one session.
    • Fresh positioning concentrated at the eve of the September jobs report; attention precedes confirmation.
    • Resolves on BLS U-3 print for September 2026.
  • 2026-10-02T07:48:52+00:00 volume-spike
    Heavy trading tests U-3 clearing 4.0% in September at 71% 71% · $16K 24h
    • 71% price implies the market sees a better-than-even chance September unemployment breaches the 4.0% threshold.
    • 31% of all-time volume arrived today, notable given the contract has a larger all-time base than the 3.8% tier.
    • Paired with the 3.9% contract at 92%, the market's implied probability mass sits between 3.9% and 4.0%, with a meaningful left tail above 4.0%.
    • Resolves on the BLS official September 2026 U-3 release.
  • 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z pre-event-pricing
    September unemployment rate prices in around 4.0-4.1 percent Kalshi ladder
    • Prediction market ladder pins September U-3 in the 4.0-4.1% band: 69% above 4.0%, falling to 38% above 4.1% and only 8% above 4.2%.
    • Trading volume on this contract surged 123.7 times day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh attention ahead of Friday's BLS release.
    • Near-historic-low jobless claims are consistent with a rate in this range; the market is not pricing a meaningful deterioration.
    • The 99% probability above 3.7% and 94% above 3.9% confirm a sub-4% print is seen as unlikely, framing Friday's report as a 4.0% vs 4.1% debate.
  • 2026-09-29T14:35:01+00:00 volume-spike
    Traders back U-3 staying above 3.9% this September 94% · $40K 24h
    • Kalshi prices 94% odds that September U-3 prints above 3.9%, implying near-certainty of an elevated read.
    • 24h volume of $40K represents 38% of all-time contract volume, a heavy single-session commitment.
    • September jobs data drops imminently; fresh positioning suggests consensus expects no surprise labor-market cooling.
    • Contract resolves on BLS official U-3 release for September 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26sep/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26sep
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26sep")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9",
  "slug": "kxu3-26sep",
  "question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment-rate",
    "us-labor-market",
    "economic-indicator",
    "september-2026",
    "binary-threshold"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 14,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5981,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →