United Airlines passengers, Q2 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-14 (39D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 45 | 2026-08-14 | 89.0% | $8 | $774 | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 | ||
| > 45.5 | 2026-08-14 | 89.0% | $219 | $682 | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 | ||
| > 46 | 2026-08-14 | 88.0% | — | $312 | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 | ||
| > 46.5 | 2026-08-14 | 82.0% | $44 | $1.9K | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 | ||
| > 47 | 2026-08-14 | 83.0% | $49 | $1.9K | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 | ||
| > 47.5 | 2026-08-14 | 67.0% | $105 | $2.0K | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 | ||
| > 48 | 2026-08-14 | 42.0% | $78 | $707 | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 | ||
| > 48.5 | 2026-08-14 | 13.0% | $7 | $210 | C | KXUAL-26JULP…0.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fiscal.ai | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 45000000.0 passengers in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fiscal.ai" sources (1) · single authority
- Fiscal.ai source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxual-26julpax/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxual-26julpax |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxual-26julpax") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-59V517G2P0",
"slug": "kxual-26julpax",
"question": "United Airlines passengers, Q2 2026",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"united-airlines",
"passenger-volume",
"q2-2026",
"airline-financials",
"travel-demand"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8465,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Fiscal.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fiscal.ai",
"url": "https://fiscal.ai",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}