U.S. share of global GDP, 2026 [ resolves 2027-07-08 (338D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 25% | 2027-07-08 | 98.0% | — | $14K | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.1 | ||
| ≥ 25.2% | 2027-07-08 | 98.0% | — | $13K | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.2 | ||
| ≥ 25.3% | 2027-07-08 | 97.0% | — | $11K | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.3 | ||
| ≥ 25.4% | 2027-07-08 | 95.0% | — | $8.9K | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.4 | ||
| ≥ 25.5% | 2027-07-08 | 92.0% | — | $3.6K | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.5 | ||
| ≥ 25.6% | 2027-07-08 | 86.0% | — | $2.6K | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.6 | ||
| ≥ 25.7% | 2027-07-08 | 44.0% | — | $544 | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.7 | ||
| ≥ 25.8% | 2027-07-08 | 36.0% | — | $269 | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.8 | ||
| ≥ 26% | 2027-07-08 | 16.0% | — | $181 | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…5.9 | ||
| ≥ 26% | 2027-07-08 | 16.0% | — | $149 | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…6.0 | ||
| ≥ 26% | 2027-07-08 | 6.0% | — | $273 | C | KXUSGDPSHARE…6.1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the U.S. share of global GDP for 2026 is above 25.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Underlying is the United States’ percentage share of World gross domestic product in current U.S. dollars for 2026, calculated using the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.
The Expiration Value will be calculated as: 100 × United States GDP ÷ World GDP
“United States GDP” and “World GDP” refer to the values attributed to 2026 for the World Bank indicator “GDP (current US$),” series code NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, for the economies United States and World, respectively.
Both inputs must be taken from the first World Development Indicators database release in which values attributed to 2026 are available for both the United States and World.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2)
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxusgdpshare-27jul01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxusgdpshare-27jul01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxusgdpshare-27jul01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BR70M6FFB1",
"slug": "kxusgdpshare-27jul01",
"question": "U.S. share of global GDP, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-economy",
"global-gdp",
"macroeconomic-indicator",
"2027-resolution",
"comparative-economics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 53862,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}