US ISM services PMI, May 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-03 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 49.5 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $15 | $34 | A | KXUSISMSERV-…9.5 | ||
| > 50.0 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | — | $2.7K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…0.0 | ||
| > 50.5 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $3 | $1.5K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…0.5 | ||
| > 51.0 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…1.0 | ||
| > 51.5 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $122 | $3.9K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…1.5 | ||
| > 52.0 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $147 | $5.5K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…2.0 | ||
| > 52.5 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $8 | $1.1K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…2.5 | ||
| > 53.0 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $20 | $4.7K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…3.0 | ||
| > 53.5 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $49 | $2.7K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…3.5 | ||
| > 54.0 | 2026-06-03 | 100.0% | $192 | $1.8K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…4.0 | ||
| > 54.5 | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $14 | $213 | A | KXUSISMSERV-…4.5 | ||
| > 55.0 | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $37 | $463 | A | KXUSISMSERV-…5.0 | ||
| > 55.5 | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…5.5 | ||
| > 56.0 | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | $0 | $584 | A | KXUSISMSERV-…6.0 | ||
| > 56.5 | 2026-06-03 | 0.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXUSISMSERV-…6.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Trading Economics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If US ISM services PMI for May 2026 is above
49.5
, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Trading Economics" ↗ resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 49.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 50.0? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 50.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 51.0? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 51.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 52.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 53.0? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 53.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| YES | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 54.0? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 100% |
| NO | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 54.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 55.0? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 55.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 56.0? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
| NO | Will US ISM services PMI for May 2026 be above 56.5? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (15 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxusismserv-26jun03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxusismserv-26jun03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxusismserv-26jun03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MXS9MSG9B6",
"slug": "kxusismserv-26jun03",
"question": "US ISM services PMI, May 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-economic-indicators",
"services-sector",
"pmi-index",
"monthly-release",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28958,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Trading Economics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}