US nonfarm payrolls, May 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-05 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -40K | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…-40 | ||
| -20K | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…-20 | ||
| > 0 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $1 | $3.3K | A | KXUSNFP-26JUN05-T0 | ||
| > 20 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $85 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…T20 | ||
| > 40 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $4 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…T40 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $2.8K | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…T60 | ||
| > 80 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $61 | $1.7K | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…T80 | ||
| > 100 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $178 | $676 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…100 | ||
| > 120 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $10 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…120 | ||
| > 140 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $16 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…140 | ||
| > 160 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | — | $3 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…160 | ||
| > 180 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — | $395 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…180 | ||
| > 200 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — | $127 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…200 | ||
| > 220 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — | $208 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…220 | ||
| > 240 | 2026-06-05 | 0.0% | — | $255 | A | KXUSNFP-26JU…240 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Trading Economics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 is above
-40,000
, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Trading Economics" ↗ resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above -40K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above -20K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 0K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 20K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 40K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 60K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 80K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 100K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 120K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 140K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 160K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 180K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 200K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 220K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026 be above 240K? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (15 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxusnfp-26jun05/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxusnfp-26jun05 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxusnfp-26jun05") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VP81V13F65",
"slug": "kxusnfp-26jun05",
"question": "US nonfarm payrolls, May 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-labor-market",
"economic-data",
"employment",
"monthly-indicator",
"nonfarm-payrolls"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12490,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Trading Economics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}