Will the 10-year US Treasury yield be above 4% on July 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-02 (10D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 4.29% | 2026-08-02 | 99.0% | — | $230 | A | KXUST10AM-26….29 | ||
| ≥ 4.34% | 2026-08-02 | 99.0% | — | $466 | A | KXUST10AM-26….34 | ||
| ≥ 4.39% | 2026-08-02 | 99.0% | $48 | $289 | A | KXUST10AM-26….39 | ||
| ≥ 4.44% | 2026-08-02 | 99.0% | $50 | $500 | A | KXUST10AM-26….44 | ||
| ≥ 4.49% | 2026-08-02 | 97.0% | $34 | $519 | A | KXUST10AM-26….49 | ||
| ≥ 4.54% | 2026-08-02 | 75.0% | — | $803 | A | KXUST10AM-26….54 | ||
| ≥ 4.59% | 2026-08-02 | 90.0% | $412 | $1.7K | A | KXUST10AM-26….59 | ||
| ≥ 4.64% | 2026-08-02 | 75.0% | $75 | $755 | A | KXUST10AM-26….64 | ||
| ≥ 4.69% | 2026-08-02 | 41.0% | $205 | $648 | A | KXUST10AM-26….69 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Department of the Treasury | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Department of the Treasury" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- U.S. Department of the Treasury source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxust10am-26jul31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxust10am-26jul31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxust10am-26jul31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LBQLQQM7Z8",
"slug": "kxust10am-26jul31",
"question": "Will the 10-year US Treasury yield be above 4% on July 31, 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"us-treasury",
"yield-tracking",
"fixed-income",
"economic-indicator",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5864,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}