30-year U.S. Treasury yield, August 4, 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-06 (2D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 5.1% | 2026-08-06 | 99.0% | $2.2K | $2.2K | A | KXUST30AD-26….10 | ||
| ≥ 5.12% | 2026-08-06 | 99.0% | $2.0K | $2.0K | A | KXUST30AD-26….12 | ||
| ≥ 5.14% | 2026-08-06 | 94.0% | $71 | $71 | A | KXUST30AD-26….14 | ||
| ≥ 5.16% | 2026-08-06 | 93.0% | $310 | $310 | A | KXUST30AD-26….16 | ||
| ≥ 5.18% | 2026-08-06 | 67.0% | $94 | $94 | A | KXUST30AD-26….18 | ||
| ≥ 5.2% | 2026-08-06 | 28.0% | $374 | $374 | A | KXUST30AD-26….20 | ||
| ≥ 5.22% | 2026-08-06 | 13.0% | $119 | $119 | A | KXUST30AD-26….22 | ||
| ≥ 5.24% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $15 | $15 | A | KXUST30AD-26….24 | ||
| ≥ 5.26% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $26 | $26 | A | KXUST30AD-26….26 | ||
| ≥ 5.28% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $23 | $23 | A | KXUST30AD-26….28 | ||
| ≥ 5.3% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $28 | $28 | A | KXUST30AD-26….30 | ||
| ≥ 5.32% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $16 | $16 | A | KXUST30AD-26….32 | ||
| ≥ 5.34% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $22 | $22 | A | KXUST30AD-26….34 | ||
| ≥ 5.36% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $19 | $19 | A | KXUST30AD-26….36 | ||
| ≥ 5.38% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | $23 | $23 | A | KXUST30AD-26….38 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Department of the Treasury | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.10% on Aug 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Aug 4, 2026, or one week following Aug 4, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Department of the Treasury" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- U.S. Department of the Treasury source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxust30ad-26aug04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxust30ad-26aug04 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxust30ad-26aug04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FZPQW7VWN3",
"slug": "kxust30ad-26aug04",
"question": "30-year U.S. Treasury yield, August 4, 2026",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"us-treasuries",
"long-duration-bonds",
"yield-levels",
"fixed-income",
"macroeconomic-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5344,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}