Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-02 (10D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 4.79% | 2026-08-02 | 99.0% | $213 | $4.6K | A | KXUST30AM-26….79 | ||
| ≥ 4.84% | 2026-08-02 | 93.0% | $5 | $209 | A | KXUST30AM-26….84 | ||
| ≥ 4.89% | 2026-08-02 | 98.0% | $10 | $1.2K | A | KXUST30AM-26….89 | ||
| ≥ 4.94% | 2026-08-02 | 91.0% | $5 | $1.1K | A | KXUST30AM-26….94 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-08-02 | 87.0% | $9 | $1.1K | A | KXUST30AM-26….99 | ||
| ≥ 5.04% | 2026-08-02 | 97.0% | — | $3.3K | A | KXUST30AM-26….04 | ||
| ≥ 5.09% | 2026-08-02 | 89.0% | $907 | $2.6K | A | KXUST30AM-26….09 | ||
| ≥ 5.14% | 2026-08-02 | 52.0% | $285 | $1.2K | A | KXUST30AM-26….14 | ||
| ≥ 5.19% | 2026-08-02 | 23.0% | $93 | $1.2K | A | KXUST30AM-26….19 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Department of the Treasury | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Department of the Treasury" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- U.S. Department of the Treasury source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxust30am-26jul31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxust30am-26jul31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxust30am-26jul31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6XJM78QRD1",
"slug": "kxust30am-26jul31",
"question": "Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"us-treasury",
"yield-rates",
"fixed-income",
"economic-indicator",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16492,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
"url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}