CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

7-year US Treasury yield, July 31, 2026 [ resolved 2026-07-31 ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 19 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 4.14% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$515
A KXUST7AM-26J….14
≥ 4.19% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$10 $969
A KXUST7AM-26J….19
≥ 4.24% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$11 $951
A KXUST7AM-26J….24
≥ 4.29% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$11 $600
A KXUST7AM-26J….29
≥ 4.34% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$60 $797
A KXUST7AM-26J….34
≥ 4.39% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$1.7K $3.1K
A KXUST7AM-26J….39
≥ 4.44% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$11 $1.5K
A KXUST7AM-26J….44
≥ 4.49% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$6 $395
A KXUST7AM-26J….49
≥ 4.54% 2026-07-31 100.0%
$300
A KXUST7AM-26J….54
≥ 4.59% 2026-07-31 0.0%
$77
A KXUST7AM-26J….59
≥ 4.64% 2026-07-31 0.0%
$2 $19
A KXUST7AM-26J….64
≥ 4.69% 2026-07-31 0.0%
$7
A KXUST7AM-26J….69
≥ 4.74% 2026-07-31 0.0%
$6
A KXUST7AM-26J….74
≥ 4.79% 2026-07-31 0.0%
$0
A KXUST7AM-26J….79
≥ 4.84% 2026-07-31 0.0%
A KXUST7AM-26J….84
≥ 4.89% 2026-07-31 0.0%
A KXUST7AM-26J….89
≥ 4.94% 2026-07-31 0.0%
A KXUST7AM-26J….94
≥ 5% 2026-07-31 0.0%
A KXUST7AM-26J….99
≥ 5.04% 2026-07-31 0.0%
A KXUST7AM-26J….04
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff U.S. Department of the Treasury link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 19 markets · share this text
If the par yield for the 7Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Department of the Treasury"
sources (1) · single authority
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.34% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.39% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
YES Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 100%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.64% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.69% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.84% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
NO Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Jul 31, 2026? kalshi 2026-07-31 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (19 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxust7am-26jul31/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxust7am-26jul31
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxust7am-26jul31")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C7VLMFBP61",
  "slug": "kxust7am-26jul31",
  "question": "7-year US Treasury yield, July 31, 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "us-treasury-yields",
    "fixed-income",
    "economic-indicators",
    "2026",
    "quantitative-prediction"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 19,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9250,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "U.S. Department of the Treasury",
      "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →