Will a new mayor be elected in Vancouver's next mayoral election? [ resolves 2026-10-17 (74D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fry | 2026-10-17 | 28.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXVANCOUVERM…FRY | ||
| Ken Sim | 2026-10-17 | 27.0% | — | $4.1K | A | KXVANCOUVERM…SIM | ||
| William Azaroff | 2026-10-17 | 17.0% | $5 | $61 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…AZA | ||
| Kareem Allam | 2026-10-17 | 9.3% | — | $730 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…ALL | ||
| Sean Orr | 2026-10-17 | 9.0% | — | $0 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…ORR | ||
| Rebecca Bligh | 2026-10-17 | 8.0% | — | $0 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…BLI | ||
| John Coupar | 2026-10-17 | 6.0% | — | $986 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…COU | ||
| Kirk LaPointe | 2026-10-17 | 2.0% | — | $37 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…LAP | ||
| Muhammad Ahmad | 2026-10-17 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…AHM | ||
| Gölök Z. Buday | 2026-10-17 | 1.0% | — | $1 | A | KXVANCOUVERM…BUD | ||
| Colleen Hardwick | 2026-10-17 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXVANCOUVERM…HAR | ||
| Stephanie Allen | 2026-10-17 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXVANCOUVERM…ALL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Ken Sim wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections" sources (3) · stated precedence rule
or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections venue-listed in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission venue-listed constitutional court venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvancouvermayor-26oct17/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvancouvermayor-26oct17 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvancouvermayor-26oct17") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MSVDFZBF29",
"slug": "kxvancouvermayor-26oct17",
"question": "Will a new mayor be elected in Vancouver's next mayoral election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"vancouver-politics",
"mayoral-election",
"canada-politics",
"2027-election",
"local-government"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7945,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official electoral commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "constitutional court",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}