Will Eugene Vindman be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? [ resolved 2026-06-04 ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugene Vindman | 2026-06-04 | 100.0% | — | $22K | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…VIN | ||
| J P Cooney | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $68 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…COO | ||
| Elizabeth Guzman | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $68 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…GUZ | ||
| Dan Helmer | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $68 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…HEL | ||
| Adele McClure | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $66 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…MCC | ||
| Saddam Salim | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $67 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…SAL | ||
| Joe Schiarizzi | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $66 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…SCH | ||
| Olivia Troye | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $55 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…TRO | ||
| Matthew Rainforth | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $64 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…RAI | ||
| Jonathan Schmeelk | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $64 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…CHM | ||
| Alex Thymmons | 2026-06-04 | 0.0% | — | $66 | B | KXVAPRIMARY-…THY |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Republican Party | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If J P Cooney wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 VA-07 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party" resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will J P Cooney be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elizabeth Guzman be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dan Helmer be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Adele McClure be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Saddam Salim be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Joe Schiarizzi be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Olivia Troye be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will Eugene Vindman be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will Matthew Rainforth be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jonathan Schmeelk be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will Alex Thymmons be the Democratic nominee for VA-07? | kalshi | 2026-06-04 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (11 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvaprimary-07d26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvaprimary-07d26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvaprimary-07d26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B03BDVL0F2",
"slug": "kxvaprimary-07d26",
"question": "Will Eugene Vindman be the Democratic nominee for VA-07?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"va-07",
"democratic-nominee",
"2026-midterms",
"virginia-politics",
"primary-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 22826,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Republican Party",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}