Will a major volcano eruption occur in 2026? [ resolves 2027-06-29 (341D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 3 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 1 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026 | 2027-06-29 | 74.0% | $128 | $2.4K | A | KXVEI4-26DEC31-A1 | ||
| Will there be at least 2 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026 | 2027-06-29 | 36.0% | — | $719 | A | KXVEI4-26DEC31-A2 | ||
| Will there be at least 3 VEI4 eruptions worldwide in 2026 | 2027-06-29 | 41.0% | — | $2.7K | A | KXVEI4-26DEC31-A3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the U | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the U" sources (2) · single authority
- the U venue-listed
- GVP-attributed start from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvei4-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvei4-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvei4-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HKK563F039",
"slug": "kxvei4-26dec31",
"question": "Will a major volcano eruption occur in 2026?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"volcanic-activity",
"natural-disasters",
"vei-index",
"geophysical-events",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5753,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the U",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "GVP",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the U",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "GVP-attributed start",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}