How many bills will receive a Trump veto in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump veto at least 1 bills before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 82.0% | $27 | $12K | A | KXVETOCOUNT-…N-1 | ||
| Will Trump veto at least 2 bills before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 52.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXVETOCOUNT-…N-2 | ||
| Will Trump veto at least 3 bills before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 39.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXVETOCOUNT-…N-3 | ||
| Will Trump veto at least 4 bills before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 30.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXVETOCOUNT-…N-4 | ||
| Will Trump veto at least 5 bills before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $188 | A | KXVETOCOUNT-…N-5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If President Trump vetoes at least 1 bills or resolutions before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A “pocket veto” is encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (2) · single authority
- United States Congress source of record venue-listed
- White House venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvetocount-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvetocount-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvetocount-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D33NKJV0Q9",
"slug": "kxvetocount-27jan",
"question": "How many bills will receive a Trump veto in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-vetoes",
"us-legislation",
"2027-resolution",
"presidential-power",
"quantitative-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15624,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}