Will someone visit Iran before July? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $39 | $722 | C | KXVISITIRAN-…RUB | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | — | $746 | C | KXVISITIRAN-…HEG | ||
| JD Vance | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $28 | $1.1K | C | KXVISITIRAN-…VAN | ||
| Reza Pahlavi | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $7 | $1.9K | C | KXVISITIRAN-…PAH | ||
| Jared Kushner | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $44 | $564 | C | KXVISITIRAN-…KUS | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $1 | $146 | C | KXVISITIRAN-…NET | ||
| Any U.S. Senator | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $34 | $635 | C | KXVISITIRAN-…SEN | ||
| Any U.S. House member | 2026-07-01 | 0.0% | $19 | $1.7K | C | KXVISITIRAN-…HOU |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Guardian | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Marco Rubio has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Guardian" sources (17)
- The Guardian venue-listed
- official representatives or offices of <person> venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- CNBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area> venue-listed
- official government sources of <area> venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Pete Hegseth visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will JD Vance visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jared Kushner visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any U.S. Senator visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will any U.S. House member visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (8 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvisitiran/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvisitiran |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvisitiran") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GY49VJFKD0",
"slug": "kxvisitiran",
"question": "Will someone visit Iran before July?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"iran-visits",
"diplomatic-travel",
"middle-east-politics",
"2026",
"political-figures"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7546,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Guardian",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official representatives or offices of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government sources of ",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}