Will any Senators vote for Kari Lake? [ resolves 2028-01-01 (527D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 2028-01-01 | 80.0% | — | $3.9K | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-RPAU | ||
| Susan Collins | 2028-01-01 | 39.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-SCOL | ||
| Lisa Murkowski | 2028-01-01 | 30.0% | — | $462 | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-LMUR | ||
| Bill Cassidy | 2028-01-01 | 30.0% | $48 | $1.5K | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-BCAS | ||
| Mitch McConnell | 2028-01-01 | 22.0% | $67 | $1.1K | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-MMCC | ||
| Thom Tillis | 2028-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $569 | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-TTIL | ||
| John Fetterman | 2028-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $580 | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-JFET | ||
| Ruben Gallego | 2028-01-01 | 2.0% | — | $26 | A | KXVOTELAKE-28-RGAL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Senate | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Susan Collins votes Yea for Kari Lake for United States Ambassador to Jamaica before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by Susan Collins to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Senate" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- U.S. Senate source of record venue-listed
- United States Senate from rules text · editorial
- senate.gov from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvotelake-28/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvotelake-28 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvotelake-28") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WFPVDS8GT0",
"slug": "kxvotelake-28",
"question": "Will any Senators vote for Kari Lake?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"kari-lake",
"2028-election",
"senate-confirmation",
"voting-behavior"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9164,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Senate",
"url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "United States Senate",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "senate.gov",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}