Will James Fishback receive more than X percent of the vote in the Florida Republican Governor primary? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-08 ]
Will James Fishback receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Senate primary?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 1% | 2026-08-27 | 100.0% | $9.6K | $494K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-50 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-08-27 | 100.0% | $507 | $65K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-51 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-08-27 | 100.0% | $363 | $65K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-52 | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2026-08-27 | 100.0% | $154 | $194K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-55 | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2027-08-18 | 39.0% | $786 | $40K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-57 | ||
| ≥ 20% | 2027-08-18 | 18.0% | $3.5K | $96K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-60 | ||
| ≥ 30% | 2027-08-18 | 7.2% | $2.3K | $29K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-65 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official government website of <geography> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
EXCHANGE NOTICE (venue page banner, series KXVOTEPRIMARY, notice id VOTEPERCENT-bulk-2026-04-10):
**Important information:** Settlement occurs only after results are officially certified.
[END EXCHANGE NOTICE]
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Fishback in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official government website of <geography>" sources (3)
official government website of <geography> venue-listed certified/official results from rules text certified results from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will James Fishback receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-27 | 100% |
| YES | Will James Fishback receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-27 | 100% |
| YES | Will James Fishback receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-27 | 100% |
| YES | Will James Fishback receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-27 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fishback 5% Florida bar priced as certain after primary 100% · $143K 24h
- 100% price implies the market considers Fishback's 5% Florida vote-share threshold already cleared.
- $143K in 24h represents 39% of all-time volume, notable compression of activity into one session.
- Paired with the 10% contract also at 100%, the pattern confirms primary results are circulating.
- Resolves on Florida's official canvass showing Fishback at or above 5% of the popular vote.
- Fishback 3% Florida floor fully priced, volume hits landmark 100% · $121K 24h
- Lowest Fishback threshold contract also sits at 100%, the full vote-share ladder is now priced certain.
- $121K in 24h equals exactly 25% of all-time volume, a notable landmark share in a single session.
- Consistent 100% pricing across 3%, 5%, and 10% contracts leaves no arbitrage gap for desks to exploit.
- Resolves on Florida certifying Fishback received at least 3% of the gubernatorial popular vote.
- Fishback 10% Florida vote share locked in at full odds 100% · $590K 24h
- Market prices 100% certainty Fishback clears 10% of Florida's 2026 gubernatorial popular vote.
- Kalshi sees $590K in 24h volume, 57% of all-time handle, a decisive single-session flush.
- Surge likely trails primary results or certified returns now in; market treating threshold as resolved.
- Contract resolves on official Florida canvass confirming ≥10% share for Fishback.
- Fishback hits 3% Florida vote threshold, market near certain 98% · $82K 24h
- 98% prices Fishback clearing the 3% threshold as a near-certainty.
- $82K traded in 24h, 31% of all-time volume, confirming late-stage conviction.
- High price with heavy volume suggests recent polling or ballot data locked in the outcome.
- Resolves on certified 2026 Florida popular vote tallies.
- Fishback clears 3% FL popular vote threshold at 98% 98% · $55K 24h
- Market prices Fishback exceeding 3% of the Florida popular vote as near-certain at 98%.
- $55K in 24h volume, 40% of all-time, shows a sharp acceleration in conviction.
- Fresh attention may follow updated polling or ballot access confirmation tightening the distribution.
- Resolves YES if Fishback clears 3% of the total 2026 Florida popular vote.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvoteprimary-govflnomr26jfis/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvoteprimary-govflnomr26jfis |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvoteprimary-govflnomr26jfis") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3BTF9D60C9",
"slug": "kxvoteprimary-govflnomr26jfis",
"question": "Will James Fishback receive more than X percent of the vote in the Florida Republican Governor primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-politics",
"republican-primary",
"2027-election",
"gubernatorial-race",
"vote-share"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 982353,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official government website of " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official government website of " ,
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "certified/official results",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "certified results",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}