Who will advance from the WA-04 primary? [ resolved 2026-08-05 ]
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda McKinney · Who will win the WA-4 primary? | 2026-08-05 | 100.0% | $15 | $6.6K | A | KXWA4PRIMARY…MCK | ||
| John Duresky · Who will win the WA-4 primary? | 2026-08-05 | 100.0% | $34 | $6.4K | A | KXWA4PRIMARY…DUR | ||
| Dan Newhouse · Who will win the WA-4 primary? | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | — | $7 | A | KXWA4PRIMARY…NEW | ||
| Jerrod Sessler · Who will win the WA-4 primary? | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $33 | $143 | A | KXWA4PRIMARY…SES | ||
| Wesley Meier · Who will win the WA-4 primary? | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | — | $140 | A | KXWA4PRIMARY…MEI | ||
| Matt Boehnke · Who will win the WA-4 primary? | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $72 | $324 | A | KXWA4PRIMARY…BOE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | relevant county clerk or board of elections | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Dan Newhouse advances to the general election in WA-4 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "relevant county clerk or board of elections" sources (7) · stated precedence rule
relevant county clerk or board of elections venue-listed Attorney General of the United States venue-listed relevant city/municipal clerk venue-listed in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer venue-listed the Federal Election Commission venue-listed state board of elections or canvassing board venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Who will win the WA-4 primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the WA-4 primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the WA-4 primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Who will win the WA-4 primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Who will win the WA-4 primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| YES | Who will win the WA-4 primary? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwa4primary-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwa4primary-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwa4primary-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1M74WPHNK1",
"slug": "kxwa4primary-26",
"question": "Who will advance from the WA-04 primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-elections-2026",
"washington-state",
"primary-elections",
"house-races",
"wa-04"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13625,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "relevant county clerk or board of elections",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Attorney General of the United States",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/ag",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "relevant city/municipal clerk",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order: the relevant state Secretary of State or chief election officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Election Commission",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "state board of elections or canvassing board",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}