Will the top two vote-getters in the WA-05 primary advance to the general election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Baumgartner | 2026-11-03 | 97.0% | — | $3.4K | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…BAU | ||
| Nate Powell | 2026-11-03 | 84.0% | $701 | $1.6K | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…POW | ||
| Carmela Conroy | 2026-11-03 | 31.0% | $746 | $1.6K | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…CON | ||
| Kevin Fagan | 2026-11-03 | 8.0% | — | $127 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…FAG | ||
| Andrew Bartleson | 2026-11-03 | 6.0% | — | $124 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…BAR | ||
| Matthew Hayes | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | — | $109 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…HAY | ||
| Michael McGarr | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | — | $0 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…MCG | ||
| Bajun Mavalwalla | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | — | $0 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…MAV | ||
| David Womack | 2026-11-03 | 2.0% | $3 | $7 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…WOM | ||
| Kyle Ursey | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $18 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…URS | ||
| Richard Freudenberg | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $21 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…FRE | ||
| Anthony Jensen | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $32 | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…JEN | ||
| Ann Marie Danimus | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXWAPRIMARY-…DAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Washington Secretary of State | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Michael Baumgartner advances in the 2026 WA-05 primary, then the market resolves to Yes.
The top two advancers will resolve to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Washington Secretary of State" sources (1) · single authority
- Washington Secretary of State source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwaprimary-0526/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwaprimary-0526 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwaprimary-0526") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QY1SJY0KL6",
"slug": "kxwaprimary-0526",
"question": "Will the top two vote-getters in the WA-05 primary advance to the general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"washington-primary-2026",
"house-election",
"wa-05-district",
"primary-advancement",
"candidate-selection"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7011,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Washington Secretary of State",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Washington Secretary of State",
"url": "https://www.sos.wa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}