Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day? [ resolved 2026-06-29 ]
Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day | 2026-06-29 | 0.0% | $896 | $73K | A | KXWATSONRNC |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Supreme Court | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules before Aug 1, 2026 that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received (and counted) after Election Day, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court" sources (1) · single authority
- Supreme Court source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day? | kalshi | 2026-06-29 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- SCOTUS mail ballot bar consensus hardens near 80 percent Kalshi 79%
- Kalshi prices the Supreme Court barring counting of mail ballots received after Election Day at 79%, resolving via Supreme Court.
- Lower court blocking of Trump's mail voting order is consistent with a drawn-out legal battle reaching the Supreme Court, where the market prices a likely bar.
- The appeals court block on Michigan voter data access adds to a pattern of lower court resistance, but markets price SCOTUS as ultimately siding differently.
- No companion contract with a clean price is available to form a spread, but 79% reflects a strong majority conviction on the SCOTUS outcome.
- Supreme Court mail ballot bar consensus hardens at 76 percent Kalshi 76%
- Kalshi prices 76% on the Supreme Court barring counting of mail ballots received after Election Day.
- The Boston ruling narrowing challenges removes a lower-court obstacle and is consistent with Kalshi's elevated 76% probability.
- The 2026 midterms proceeding as scheduled is priced at 94% on Polymarket (CM-EVT-99YJSN2LN7), so a ballot-rule fight occurs against a high-certainty election backdrop.
- Resolves via Supreme Court decision; the narrowing of lower-court suits increases the probability this reaches SCOTUS as the sole arbiter.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwatsonrnc/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwatsonrnc |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwatsonrnc") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8NWCS8ZRW8",
"slug": "kxwatsonrnc",
"question": "Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"scotus-decision",
"mail-ballot-counting",
"2026-election",
"voting-rights",
"election-administration"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73094,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Supreme Court",
"url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}