Where will Waymo operate in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (157D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver, CO | 2027-01-08 | 83.0% | — | $6.7K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…DEN | ||
| Tampa, FL | 2027-01-08 | 80.0% | $32 | $6.3K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…TAM | ||
| San Diego, CA | 2027-01-08 | 77.0% | — | $3.5K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…SAN | ||
| Las Vegas, NV | 2027-01-08 | 77.0% | $5 | $4.8K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…LAS | ||
| Sacramento, CA | 2027-01-08 | 63.0% | — | $3.5K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…SAC | ||
| Detroit, MI | 2027-01-08 | 43.0% | $6 | $3.5K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…DET | ||
| Portland, OR | 2027-01-08 | 20.0% | $5 | $860 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…POR | ||
| Washington, DC | 2027-01-08 | 17.0% | $5 | $857 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…-DC | ||
| Seattle, WA | 2027-01-08 | 16.0% | — | $626 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…SEA | ||
| London, UK | 2027-01-08 | 6.0% | — | $98 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…LON |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Waymo | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Washington, DC, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Washington, DC may be limited to certain areas. Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Washington, DC
Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Washington, DC limits
Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Washington, DC
Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Washington, DC
Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public
Examples that would resolve to No:
Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in Washington, DC
Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in Washington, DC
All Waymo vehicles in Washington, DC have safety drivers
Waymo is testing but not offering paid public rides
Service requires being on a waitlist or having a special code
Waymo announces plans to launch but hasn't started service by Jan 1, 2027
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Waymo" sources (1) · single authority
Waymo committed source
recent wire items
- Waymo Tampa launch by Jan 1 holds 96% amid volume spike 96% · $23K 24h
- Kalshi prices Waymo ride-hailing in Tampa at 96% before year-end, near-certain but with slightly more residual risk than Denver.
- $23K in 24h is 72% of all-time volume, showing concentrated attention across all three Waymo expansion markets simultaneously.
- The triple Waymo volume surge across Denver, San Diego, and Tampa points to a company-wide announcement or regulatory update.
- Resolves YES if Waymo offers commercial rides in Tampa before January 1, 2027.
- Waymo San Diego odds hold at 86% through a volume test 86% · $39K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Waymo San Diego launch before Jan 1, 2027 at 86%, meaningful but not a certainty.
- 24h volume of $39K is 89% of all-time, the market is pricing in a strong but not locked-in outcome.
- San Diego lags Denver and Tampa in odds, implying the regulatory or operational path has more friction.
- Resolves YES if commercial Waymo ride-hailing begins in San Diego before January 1, 2027.
- Waymo Denver launch before Jan 1 draws heavy backing 99% · $99K 24h
- Kalshi prices Waymo ride-hailing in Denver at 99%, market is treating launch as a done deal.
- $99K in 24h is 88% of all-time contract volume, suggesting a specific catalyst drove traders to close out remaining doubt.
- A regulatory filing or public launch announcement in Denver likely triggered the volume flush at near-certainty pricing.
- Resolves YES if Waymo offers commercial ride-hailing in Denver before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwaymocity-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwaymocity-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwaymocity-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GV7S80KSY9",
"slug": "kxwaymocity-26dec",
"question": "Where will Waymo operate in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"waymo",
"autonomous-vehicles",
"ride-hailing",
"geographic-expansion",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30817,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Waymo",
"resolution_source_url": "https://waymo.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Waymo",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Waymo",
"url": "https://waymo.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}