Where will Waymo operate in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (186D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas, NV | 2027-01-08 | 93.0% | $1.0K | $2.4K | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…LAS | ||
| San Diego, CA | 2027-01-08 | 92.0% | $1.9K | $2.9K | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…SAN | ||
| Denver, CO | 2027-01-08 | 64.0% | $195 | $1.0K | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…DEN | ||
| Tampa, FL | 2027-01-08 | 61.0% | $668 | $2.3K | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…TAM | ||
| Detroit, MI | 2027-01-08 | 45.0% | $26 | $1.6K | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…DET | ||
| Sacramento, CA | 2027-01-08 | 34.0% | $10 | $642 | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…SAC | ||
| Seattle, WA | 2027-01-08 | 28.0% | $425 | $858 | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…SEA | ||
| London, UK | 2027-01-08 | 25.0% | $5 | $155 | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…LON | ||
| Portland, OR | 2027-01-08 | 24.0% | — | $615 | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…POR | ||
| Washington, DC | 2027-01-08 | 22.0% | — | $658 | B | KXWAYMOCITY-…-DC |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Waymo | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Washington, DC, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Washington, DC may be limited to certain areas. Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Washington, DC
Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Washington, DC limits
Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Washington, DC
Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Washington, DC
Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public
Examples that would resolve to No:
Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in Washington, DC
Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in Washington, DC
All Waymo vehicles in Washington, DC have safety drivers
Waymo is testing but not offering paid public rides
Service requires being on a waitlist or having a special code
Waymo announces plans to launch but hasn't started service by Jan 1, 2027
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Waymo" sources (1) · single authority
- Waymo source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwaymocity-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwaymocity-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwaymocity-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GV7S80KSY9",
"slug": "kxwaymocity-26dec",
"question": "Where will Waymo operate in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"waymo",
"autonomous-vehicles",
"ride-hailing",
"geographic-expansion",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13136,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Waymo",
"resolution_source_url": "https://waymo.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Waymo",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Waymo",
"url": "https://waymo.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}