WTI crude oil minimum settlement price, December 31, 2026 [ resolves 2026-06 – 2027-01 ]
Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Dec 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $70 | 2026-06-29 | 100.0% | $410 | $11K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T70 | ||
| ≤ $50 | 2027-01-07 | 9.0% | — | $208 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T50 | ||
| ≤ $55 | 2027-01-07 | 13.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T55 | ||
| ≤ $60 | 2027-01-07 | 18.0% | $28 | $2.8K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T60 | ||
| ≤ $65 | 2027-01-07 | 29.0% | $87 | $1.6K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T65 | ||
| ≤ $75 | 2027-01-07 | 59.0% | $291 | $13K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T75 | ||
| ≤ $80 | 2027-01-07 | 77.0% | $22K | $70K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T80 | ||
| ≤ $85 | 2027-01-07 | 98.0% | — | $152K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T85 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ICE | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $85 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ICE" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- ICE source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $85 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-07 | 98% |
| YES | Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $70 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-29 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- WTI $70 floor by year-end defended at near-certainty 99% · $21K 24h
- Kalshi at 99%, market treats a sub-$70 WTI close at any point through year-end as essentially impossible.
- $21K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume; modest but consistent with institutional hedgers locking in cheap premium.
- Current WTI spot well above $70; contract serves as tail-risk insurance, not a directional call.
- Year-end resolution; 99% price implies sellers are harvesting near-riskless yield on residual counterparties.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwtimin-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwtimin-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwtimin-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
"slug": "kxwtimin-26dec31",
"question": "WTI crude oil minimum settlement price, December 31, 2026",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"wti-crude-oil",
"energy-commodities",
"price-floor",
"2026-resolution",
"financial-derivatives"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 251978,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ICE",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theice.com/index",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ICE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ICE",
"url": "https://www.theice.com/index",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}