Will Xi Jinping visit the United States? [ resolved 2026-09-23 ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Guardian | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Xi Jinping has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of the United States of America before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries of the area is required. Flying over without landing, layovers during which the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual or remote appearances, future visit plans, or (unless explicitly specified) presence in adjacent international waters or solely within embassy or consulate grounds do NOT constitute a visit. International airports are considered within the boundaries of their host jurisdiction. A visit that began before the specified time period and is ongoing as of its start does not count; however, if the person departs and re-enters the area during the time period, the re-entry constitutes a new visit and does count.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Guardian" sources (17)
The Guardian venue-listed official representatives or offices of <person> venue-listed Fox News venue-listed official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives venue-listed Semafor venue-listed The Information venue-listed CNBC venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed CNN venue-listed Politico venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Reuters venue-listed local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area> venue-listed official government sources of <area> venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Xi Jinping visit the United States of America before Oct 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-23 | 100% |
| YES | Will Xi Jinping visit the United States of America before Nov 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-23 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Xi US visit before Oct 1 draws heavy late-stage trading 92% · $74K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Xi Jinping US visit before Oct 1, 2026 at 92%, strongly consensus.
- 24h volume of $74K represents 26% of all-time, a notable single-session share this close to resolution.
- With under two weeks to deadline, volume likely reflects position squaring or last-minute directional conviction.
- Resolves Oct 1, 2026; any cancellation or postponement announcement is the primary repricing risk.
- Xi U.S. visit before Oct 1 holds at 94% through a volume surge 94% · $74K 24h
- Kalshi prices 94%, market treating a confirmed visit as all but certain with 12 days remaining.
- 24h volume of $74K is 26% of all-time, a notable one-day share this close to resolution.
- Surge likely reflects late hedging or last-minute position-taking ahead of a scheduled diplomatic event.
- Resolves October 1, 2026; cancellation or postponement is the sole remaining downside scenario.
- Xi US visit before Nov 1 trades near certainty on fresh volume 96% · $16K 24h
- 96% price signals the market treats a Xi visit to the US before November 1, 2026 as nearly confirmed.
- 43% of all-time volume in 24 hours implies a concrete scheduling development or official confirmation is circulating.
- At this price, remaining volume likely represents final settlement positioning rather than directional trade.
- Resolves if Xi Jinping sets foot on US soil before November 1, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxxiusa-26jul07/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxxiusa-26jul07 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxxiusa-26jul07") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VD0FYJK2D7",
"slug": "kxxiusa-26jul07",
"question": "Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"china-us-relations",
"state-visit",
"xi-jinping",
"2026",
"diplomatic-travel"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19930,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Guardian",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official representatives or offices of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official social media accounts of or their official representatives" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in ",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government sources of ",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}