KY-05 House Election Winner [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 97.0% | — | $19K | B | 0x7282c5…4745 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 5.0% | — | $9.6K | B | 0x6b4115…1994 | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa6fdca…e8b8 | ||
| Will A win the KY-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfe301a…2e44 | ||
| Will B win the KY-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x94ddeb…c510 | ||
| Will C win the KY-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x63b526…e873 | ||
| Will D win the KY-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x00265b…10b3 | ||
| Will E win the KY-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5d49d3…5f40 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- KY-05 Republican win priced as near-certain 97% · $18K 24h
- Polymarket prices a Republican KY-05 House win at 97%, essentially a resolved outcome in market terms.
- 24h volume of $18K is 49% of all-time; nearly half of all lifetime trading occurred in one session.
- Volume into a 97% contract likely reflects late entrants seeking near-riskless yield on a safe Republican seat.
- Resolves on the 2026 KY-05 House general election result.
- KY-05 GOP at 97% as buyers back the heavy favorite 97% · $18K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 97% to win Kentucky's 5th House seat, effectively a resolved outcome in the market's view.
- $18K in 24h is 49% of all-time volume, meaning nearly half of all lifetime liquidity arrived in one session.
- KY-05 is one of the most Republican districts in the country; volume may reflect arbitrage or contract settlement positioning.
- Contract resolves on the November 2026 KY-05 general election; outcome broadly viewed as a foregone conclusion.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ky-05-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ky-05-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ky-05-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BL7L8MBY65",
"slug": "ky-05-house-election-winner",
"question": "KY-05 House Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"kentucky",
"2026",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28986,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}