Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 28 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | 2026-12-31 | 63.0% | $4.5K | $616K | C | 0x684e5b…4696 | ||
| Alphabet | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | $1.1K | $337K | C | 0x39676b…8f7c | ||
| Apple | 2026-12-31 | 9.7% | $2.0K | $386K | C | 0x55a5a4…176a | ||
| SpaceX | 2026-12-31 | 3.5% | $9.2K | $239K | C | 0xa226da…3574 | ||
| Saudi Aramco | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | $845 | $580K | C | 0x899f8c…1734 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | $3.0K | $432K | C | 0x6b978b…6bca | ||
| Tesla | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $925 | $385K | C | 0x1f403f…4af4 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $5.2K | $390K | C | 0xa0bc0c…412e | ||
| Company C | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x27c69b…4c83 | ||
| Company E | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1393f4…ef2f | ||
| Company G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbb46fa…c1fd | ||
| Company I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf21489…f7fb | ||
| Company K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x426c09…64c4 | ||
| Company M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2a7d0…3811 | ||
| Company O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcbaa5d…422d | ||
| Company Q | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x223c1c…c4f5 | ||
| Company S | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb5db4a…55c8 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x53ce19…429b | ||
| Company B | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcf4763…fc81 | ||
| Company D | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd587cc…b178 | ||
| Company F | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe55f5c…2375 | ||
| Company H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa2adf3…aa6b | ||
| Company J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x720e34…3791 | ||
| Company L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf076a7…6527 | ||
| Company N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcbf1be…a447 | ||
| Company P | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb9929c…71cb | ||
| Company R | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c4461…354e | ||
| Company T | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb250be…c250 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Company C be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company E be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company G be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company I be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company K be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company M be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company O be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company Q be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company S be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will any other company be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company B be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company D be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company F be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company H be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company J be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company L be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company N be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company P be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company R be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
| closed | Will Company T be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | polymarket | 2026-12-31 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (20 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/largest-company-end-of-december-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/largest-company-end-of-december-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("largest-company-end-of-december-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WMBW6M11T5",
"slug": "largest-company-end-of-december-2026",
"question": "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"market-cap-ranking",
"tech-giants",
"2026-resolution",
"economy",
"business"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 28,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3363536,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 49,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}